Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Idler?

Crafting + Idler

Of 235 developers who shipped a Crafting Idler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 338 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×2.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $480. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 338 games are announced against 172 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 338 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 235
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $418 → $64k → $2.4k → $2.1k → $1.8k → $1.7k (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 235
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,676)
Top 25% $7.3k (exactly $7,282)
Top 5% $152k (exactly $152,380)
Developers, 2 yr 235
Released games 476
Announced 338
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 170% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Idler; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Incremental, Resource Management, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 36,377 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $7.2k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 89 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 338 games are announced against 172 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  5. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  6. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  7. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  9. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  10. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  11. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced
  12. + Co-opPoor odds208 devs · median $38k · 576 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BALL x PIT $14.99 24,714 95% 741k $11M (exactly $11,113,886) Kenny Sun and Friends
Melvor Idle older $9.99 14,630 90% 439k $4.4M (exactly $4,384,611) Games by Malcs
BitCraft Online · EA $15.99 3,334 72% 100k $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) Clockwork Laboratories, Inc.
Fantasy Map Simulator · EA older $7.99 4,190 89% 126k $1.0M (exactly $1,004,343) The Stranger
Swag and Sorcery older $12.99 2,318 54% 70k $903k (exactly $903,325) Lazy Bear Games, Uroboros Games
Beer Factory older $18.99 1,410 40% 42k $803k (exactly $803,277) MyceliumGames
Orb of Creation $11.99 2,167 84% 65k $779k (exactly $779,470) MarpleGames
Hotel Galactic · EA $34.99 594 73% 18k $624k (exactly $623,522) EndGameLoop Games
Weapon Shop Fantasy older $9.99 1,560 78% 47k $468k (exactly $467,532) INDIECN
Beltmatic older $6.99 2,199 94% 66k $461k (exactly $461,130) Notional Games
Forage Wizard $6.99 1,549 87% 46k $325k (exactly $324,825) Lost Maxim
Nomad Idle $9.99 852 64% 26k $255k (exactly $255,344) The Fox Knocks
Another Try 2 · EA $6.99 1,000 53% 30k $210k (exactly $209,700) Hoki Wolf Studio
Military Incremental Complex $9.99 692 82% 21k $207k (exactly $207,392) Space Kraken Studios
Desktop Raid $8.99 672 76% 20k $181k (exactly $181,238) Lee_Studio
Zad Archery $6.99 803 73% 24k $168k (exactly $168,389) Samharia Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.