Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Western

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Western Crafting game?

Crafting + Western

Only 13 developers shipped a Western Crafting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Saloon Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $69k, ×109 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $33k; 1 in 20 cleared $480k, ×780 the market median. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 23 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 109.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 40% on the market, 23 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Western
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2M → $647k → $12k → $211k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Western: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $33k (exactly $32,526)
Median $69k (exactly $68,609)
Top 25% $211k (exactly $211,415)
Top 5% $490k (exactly $489,942)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 36
Announced 23
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $16.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Western
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Open World, Action
Price point
$16.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $16.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 3,567 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $33k, median $69k, 1 in 4 over $210k, 1 in 20 over $480k.

3 in 10 developers made under $33k. 4 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  11. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced
  12. + Co-opPoor odds208 devs · median $38k · 576 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Railway Empire older $29.99 7,219 82% 217k $6.5M (exactly $6,494,934) Gaming Minds Studios
This Land Is My Land older $29.99 4,248 68% 127k $3.8M (exactly $3,821,926) Game-Labs
Outlaws of the Old West · EA older $19.99 5,584 58% 168k $3.3M (exactly $3,348,725) Virtual Basement LLC
Railway Empire 2 older $49.99 1,966 72% 59k $2.9M (exactly $2,948,410) Gaming Minds Studios
Heat older $19.99 2,612 49% 78k $1.6M (exactly $1,566,416) Code}{atch
Wild West Legacy older $26.99 1,706 39% 51k $1.4M (exactly $1,381,348) Moon Punch Studio
Above Snakes older $24.99 1,574 74% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,180,028) Square Glade Games
The Oregon Trail older $29.99 1,220 79% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,097,634) Gameloft
Wild Bastards older $34.99 616 74% 18k $647k (exactly $646,615) Blue Manchu
Saloon Simulator · EA $18.99 860 89% 26k $490k (exactly $489,942) Glivi Games S.A.
Alaska Gold Fever $16.99 959 79% 29k $489k (exactly $488,802) Baked Games
Wild Indigo Ranch $19.99 424 68% 13k $254k (exactly $254,273) Funday Games
Tombwater $24.99 282 92% 8.5k $211k (exactly $211,415) Moth Atlas
Cattle Country $18.99 335 86% 10k $191k (exactly $190,849) Castle Pixel, LLC.
Dino Path Trail $14.99 197 76% 5.9k $89k (exactly $88,591) Void Pointer
Western Rye · EA $21.99 104 53% 3.1k $69k (exactly $68,609) Nixalon Studios
Wild West Supermarket Simulator $12.99 168 63% 5.0k $65k (exactly $65,470) SunDust
Frontier Legends · EA $29.99 57 40% 1.7k $51k (exactly $51,283) Neojac Entertainment Inc.
Wild West Miner Simulator $5.99 181 66% 5.4k $33k (exactly $32,526) Digital Melody

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.