Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + LGBTQ+

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an LGBTQ+ Crafting game?

Crafting + LGBTQ+

Only 19 developers shipped an LGBTQ+ Crafting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Fields of Mistria, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $90k, ×144 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $24k; 1 in 20 cleared $13M, ×21331 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 50 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 143.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 50 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + LGBTQ+
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $20M → $15k → $483k → $255k → $30k → $46k (still earning) → $945k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + LGBTQ+: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $23k (exactly $23,358)
Median $90k (exactly $90,390)
Top 25% $945k (exactly $945,364)
Top 5% $13M (exactly $13,395,985)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 57
Announced 50
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
LGBTQ+
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Farming Sim, Life Sim
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 48,287 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $24k, median $90k, 1 in 4 over $940k, 1 in 20 over $13M.

3 in 10 developers made under $24k. 2 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  9. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  10. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  11. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced
  12. + Co-opPoor odds208 devs · median $38k · 576 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
My Time at Sandrock older $39.99 24,110 88% 723k $29M (exactly $28,924,767) Pathea Games
Coral Island older $29.99 21,828 89% 655k $20M (exactly $19,638,652) Stairway Games
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Remastered $49.99 6,860 84% 206k $10M (exactly $10,287,942) Guerrilla Games, Nixxes Software
Potionomics older $24.99 6,973 90% 209k $5.2M (exactly $5,227,658) Voracious Games
Coffee Talk older $12.99 11,271 94% 338k $4.4M (exactly $4,392,309) Toge Productions
Tales of the Shire: A The Lord of The Rings™ Game $34.99 3,237 81% 97k $3.4M (exactly $3,397,879) Wētā Workshop
Fae Farm older $29.99 2,741 78% 82k $2.5M (exactly $2,466,078) Phoenix Labs
Wylde Flowers older $24.99 2,329 95% 70k $1.7M (exactly $1,746,051) Studio Drydock Pty Ltd
Tales of Seikyu $24.99 2,179 83% 65k $1.6M (exactly $1,633,596) ACE Entertainment
In Falsus $39.99 788 89% 24k $945k (exactly $945,364) lowiro
Sensei! I Like You So Much! $16.99 1,304 86% 39k $665k (exactly $664,649) LaoO Studio (Shanghai Ou Ou Xi Network… (LaoO Studio (Shanghai Ou Ou Xi Network Technology Co. LTD))
LEGO® Horizon Adventures™ $39.99 403 60% 12k $483k (exactly $483,479) Guerrilla Games, Studio Gobo
GIRLS MADE PUDDING $9.99 866 95% 26k $260k (exactly $259,540) Kazuhide Oka
CraftCraft: Fantasy Merchant Simulator $15.99 531 81% 16k $255k (exactly $254,721) Placeholder Gameworks, Pineapple Works
Anime City · EA $14.99 201 72% 6.0k $90k (exactly $90,390) Shoujo City Developer

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.