Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Dogs

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dog Crafting game?

Crafting + Dogs

Only 16 developers shipped a Dog Crafting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Gaucho and the Grassland, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.0k, ×14 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $240k, ×392 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 26 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 14.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 26 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Dogs
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $1.8k → $9.0k → $8.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Dogs: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $9.0k (exactly $9,017)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $33,267)
Top 5% $246k (exactly $245,877)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 44
Announced 26
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dogs
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 1,120 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $9.0k, 1 in 4 over $33k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin older $29.99 5,004 92% 150k $4.5M (exactly $4,502,099) Edelweiss
No Place Like Home older $19.99 3,784 78% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,269,265) Chicken Launcher
The Flame in the Flood older $14.99 2,709 76% 81k $1.2M (exactly $1,218,237) The Molasses Flood
Big Farm Story older $19.99 1,172 78% 35k $703k (exactly $702,848) Goodgame Studios
Arctico older $9.99 2,207 70% 66k $661k (exactly $661,438) Claudio Norori, Antonio Vargas
Everdream Valley older $24.99 708 70% 21k $531k (exactly $530,788) Mooneaters
Everdell older $19.99 577 90% 17k $346k (exactly $346,027) Dire Wolf
Gaucho and the Grassland $19.99 410 96% 12k $246k (exactly $245,877) Epopeia Games
Dog Brew older $3.50 1,522 97% 46k $160k (exactly $159,810) Yuliy Oneshko, S-Grade
Rancher: A new life · EA $19.99 265 64% 8.0k $159k (exactly $158,920) Sim Farm S.A.
Everdream Village · EA $19.99 107 69% 3.2k $64k (exactly $64,168) Mooneaters
Ice World $9.99 111 57% 3.3k $33k (exactly $33,267) CoolRabbit Games
Stay: Your Forever Pet! · EA $12.99 61 96% 1.8k $24k (exactly $23,772) Windup Minds
Colored Pencil Bakery $9.99 36 88% 1.1k $11k (exactly $10,789) Andymente
Woolly Boy and the Circus $7.99 42 64% 1.3k $10k (exactly $10,067) big pineapple
The Creator $6.99 43 81% 1.3k $9.0k (exactly $9,017) Mark Miller
The Peak of Life $8.99 30 66% 900 $8.1k (exactly $8,091) XY Game
Donna: The Canine Quest $9.99 15 100% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) RAZE GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.