Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Cooking

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Cooking game?

Physics + Cooking

Of 78 developers who shipped a Physics Cooking game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 121 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×2.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×349 the market median. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 121 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 40% on the market, 121 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Cooking
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 78
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.7k → $418 → $1.8k → $2.2k → $719 → $1.5k → $898 (still earning) → $2.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Cooking: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 78
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,678)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,661)
Top 5% $219k (exactly $219,401)
Developers, 2 yr 78
Released games 155
Announced 121
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.49

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Cooking
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Cooking; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Sandbox
Price point
$5.49 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $5.49.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 11,816 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 44 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 121 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Cooking Simulator 2019 · $11M Kebab Chefs! - Restaurant Simulator 2026 · $3.8M Arctic Eggs 2024 · $1.6M Cooking Simulator VR 2021 · $953k Omelet You Cook 2026 · $685k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cooking Simulator older $19.99 17,837 84% 535k $11M (exactly $10,696,849) Big Cheese Studio
Kebab Chefs! - Restaurant Simulator $17.99 7,019 83% 211k $3.8M (exactly $3,788,154) Biotech Gameworks
Arctic Eggs older $9.99 5,343 95% 160k $1.6M (exactly $1,601,297) The Water Museum, cockydoody, abmarnie,… (The Water Museum, cockydoody, abmarnie, Cameron Ginex)
Cooking Simulator VR older $19.99 1,589 74% 48k $953k (exactly $952,923) Big Cheese Studio
Omelet You Cook $14.99 1,523 97% 46k $685k (exactly $684,893) Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose
Food Truck Simulator older $19.99 1,106 68% 33k $663k (exactly $663,268) DRAGO entertainment
Cooking Simulator 2: Better Together $24.99 816 49% 24k $612k (exactly $611,755) Big Cheese Studio
Brewmaster: Beer Brewing Simulator older $17.99 1,046 76% 31k $565k (exactly $564,526) Auroch Digital
Barista Simulator older $14.99 620 75% 19k $279k (exactly $278,814) CubeCube Sports Ltd.
Kinny and the Cosmic Cauldron $12.99 563 85% 17k $219k (exactly $219,401) Kinnymoms
Happy's Humble Burger Cult $9.99 477 86% 14k $143k (exactly $142,957) Scythe Dev Team
Bakery Cafe Simulator · EA $11.99 380 70% 11k $137k (exactly $136,686) Meerkatt Studio
Tavern Legends $24.99 160 91% 4.8k $120k (exactly $119,952) CROWFORGE Games
Crime Shop Simulator: A Prison Boss Game $19.99 157 85% 4.7k $94k (exactly $94,153) TREBUCHET
Little Chef: Cozy Cooking $7.99 308 95% 9.2k $74k (exactly $73,828) Julien Truebiger, Erika Zakse, Danny va… (Julien Truebiger, Erika Zakse, Danny van Duist)
Skewer Squad $5.49 413 88% 12k $68k (exactly $68,021) Fake Owls

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.