Do I ship it?

GamesIncrementalIncremental + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Incremental game?

Incremental + Supernatural

Of 33 developers who shipped a Supernatural Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×5.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $660. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 35 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 35 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Incremental + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $15k → $6.9k → $2.7k → $80k → $4.3k → $1.6k (still earning) → $3.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Incremental + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $657 (exactly $657)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,395)
Top 25% $5.3k (exactly $5,273)
Top 5% $88k (exactly $88,072)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 62
Announced 35
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 110% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Incremental; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Investigation, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Stylized
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 4,435 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $660, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $5.2k, 1 in 20 over $88k.

3 in 10 developers made under $660. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Incremental with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds15 devs · median $11k · 12 announced
  2. + OtomeStrong odds12 devs · median $7.0k · 11 announced
  3. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $6.1k · 15 announced
  4. + FarmingFair21 devs · median $5.9k · 23 announced
  5. + Dynamic NarrationFair19 devs · median $4.0k · 14 announced
  6. + MiningFair141 devs · median $3.9k · 207 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  8. + Arena ShooterFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair140 devs · median $3.1k · 136 announced
  10. + UndergroundFair27 devs · median $3.0k · 35 announced
  11. + LootFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  12. + EconomyFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced

All 188 pairs on the Incremental page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Love Curse: Find Your Soulmate $14.00 3,275 95% 98k $1.4M (exactly $1,375,500) Xso
I'm on Observation Duty 6 older $11.99 652 94% 20k $235k (exactly $234,524) Notovia, Dreamloop Games
Kon's Lesson! older $9.99 560 88% 17k $168k (exactly $167,832) Fox House
Mosaic of the Strange $12.99 226 92% 6.8k $88k (exactly $88,072) Mark Ffrench
I'm on Observation Duty 8 $11.99 237 95% 7.1k $85k (exactly $85,249) Notovia, Dreamloop Games
Mosaic of The Pharaohs $8.99 297 92% 8.9k $80k (exactly $80,101) Mark Ffrench
筒楼异事 older $12.99 139 87% 4.2k $54k (exactly $54,168) 炸渣渣鸡
浮游 older $9.99 101 84% 3.0k $30k (exactly $30,270) Kaishan
Greenhearth Necromancer $10.99 88 96% 2.6k $29k (exactly $29,014) Silverstring Media Inc.
Dark Notes older $7.99 108 75% 3.2k $26k (exactly $25,888) HeartBeat Plus
Desktop Detective $4.99 144 88% 4.3k $22k (exactly $21,557) Conradical Games
XXX Pussy House $6.99 66 71% 2.0k $14k (exactly $13,840) Dreamers Workshop
Idle Regenerator $9.99 46 58% 1.4k $14k (exactly $13,786) Gestalt Gaming LLC
GAME.exe 2 - Phantom Strike $5.99 34 76% 1.0k $6.1k (exactly $6,110) Punx Studios
UNIVERSAL WEIRDNESS $7.99 22 77% 660 $5.3k (exactly $5,273) Cotton Game

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.