Do I ship it?

GamesDating SimDating Sim + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental Dating Sim?

Dating Sim + Incremental

Of 140 developers who shipped an Incremental Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 136 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×26 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $780. Revenue is up 140% on the market; 136 games are announced against 77 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 26.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 136 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dating Sim + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 140
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $14k → $1.8k → $4.6k → $3.5k → $2.4k → $3.8k (still earning) → $3.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dating Sim + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 140
Bottom 30% $779 (exactly $779)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,144)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $17,405)
Top 5% $276k (exactly $275,518)
Developers, 2 yr 140
Released games 435
Announced 136
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Dating Sim, Incremental; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Visual Novel, RPG
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.00 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.00 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 12,371 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $780, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $780. 8 in 10 of the 100 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 136 games are announced against 77 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dating Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WarStrong odds8 devs · median $100k · 3 announced
  2. + FMVStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  3. + Souls-likeStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  4. + AliensStrong odds20 devs · median $6.7k · 15 announced
  5. + PlatformerStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair39 devs · median $27k · 44 announced
  7. + FPSFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  8. + Post-apocalypticFair29 devs · median $15k · 34 announced
  9. + Quick-Time EventsFair17 devs · median $15k · 16 announced
  10. + Immersive SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  11. + Action-AdventureFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  12. + TacticalFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced

All 142 pairs on the Dating Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Summer Clover older $17.99 9,062 97% 272k $4.9M (exactly $4,890,761) Connection
Peeping Dorm Manager older $10.99 6,206 92% 186k $2.0M (exactly $2,046,118) HornyDoge
Love Curse: Find Your Soulmate $14.00 3,275 95% 98k $1.4M (exactly $1,375,500) Xso
HunieCam Studio older $6.99 5,192 88% 156k $1.1M (exactly $1,088,762) HuniePot
Sex, Secrets & Used Tech $16.99 1,291 85% 39k $658k (exactly $658,023) WorkNite Games, 78Games
1 to 1 humanoid edible toys older $7.99 2,420 92% 73k $580k (exactly $580,074) 汉谟拉比炒面, 我的屁是香哒
Space Warlord Organ Trading Simulator older $19.99 827 92% 25k $496k (exactly $495,952) Strange Scaffold
恋爱吗?我家猫会后空翻 $9.99 1,508 96% 45k $452k (exactly $451,948) 光循花火工作室
WindStop Strategy $9.99 1,494 78% 45k $448k (exactly $447,752) Xia Start
Handyman Legend older $6.99 2,066 89% 62k $433k (exactly $433,240) SupaShinKen Studio
Handyman Fantasy $7.99 1,607 95% 48k $385k (exactly $385,198) SupaShinKen Studio
Midnight Paradise $17.99 658 88% 20k $355k (exactly $355,123) Lewdlab
Growing Things Up - Season 1 $12.99 707 91% 21k $276k (exactly $275,518) King, BLANQ
Souper Game $14.99 550 78% 17k $247k (exactly $247,335) SinBeans Studio
万词破 - 单词女友 $14.99 448 89% 13k $201k (exactly $201,466) 万词破学游组
Fantasy Aquarium $6.99 833 79% 25k $175k (exactly $174,680) MOON SCAPE

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.