Do I ship it?

GamesOffroadOffroad + Combat Racing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Racing Offroad game?

Offroad + Combat Racing

Only 12 developers shipped a Combat Racing Offroad game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Recharge: Room Games, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×5.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 6 developers shipped in the last year and 31 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 31 announced, ×5.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Offroad + Combat Racing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $10k → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Offroad + Combat Racing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $240 (exactly $240)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,190)
Top 5% $188k (exactly $187,706)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 44
Announced 31
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Offroad
effort 7 / 10 · low · terrain and suspension physics
Combat Racing
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle physics plus weapons and AI drivers

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Offroad, Combat Racing
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 7 games average 69% positive over 385 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $240, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Offroad with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + 3D PlatformerLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  2. + Character CustomizationPoor odds11 devs · median $69k · 27 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $19k · 32 announced
  4. + PvPPoor odds13 devs · median $4.3k · 19 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds50 devs · median $2.7k · 71 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds42 devs · median $2.7k · 70 announced
  7. + SportsPoor odds25 devs · median $2.5k · 28 announced
  8. + TransportationPoor odds10 devs · median $2.3k · 26 announced
  9. + Automobile SimPoor odds50 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  10. + SimulationPoor odds57 devs · median $1.3k · 83 announced
  11. + Open WorldPoor odds22 devs · median $1.3k · 50 announced
  12. + NaturePoor odds20 devs · median $1.1k · 34 announced

All 28 pairs on the Offroad page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Need for Speed™ Payback older $29.99 27,424 85% 823k $25M (exactly $24,673,373) Ghost Games
FlatOut older $7.49 5,870 91% 176k $1.3M (exactly $1,318,989) Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Me… (Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Media, Jordan Freeman Group)
Crashday Redline Edition older $11.99 1,528 89% 46k $550k (exactly $549,622) Moonbyte
Arizona Derby older $18.99 601 77% 18k $342k (exactly $342,390) Falcon Interactive
Recharge: Room Games · EA $19.99 313 67% 9.4k $188k (exactly $187,706) Room Games
Crash Drive 2 older $4.99 1,040 90% 31k $156k (exactly $155,688) M2H
Crash Drive 3 older $19.99 219 93% 6.6k $131k (exactly $131,334) M2H
Super Toy Cars Offroad older $19.99 30 56% 900 $18k (exactly $17,991) Eclipse Games
RC Revolution older $14.99 39 69% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,538) Phren Games
Short Oval Simulator · EA $17.99 19 94% 570 $10k (exactly $10,254) Dangerous Derk Interactive
Chaos on Wheels $9.99 34 67% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Acodeon Development
Lawnmower Game Racing 2: Drunken $1.99 15 73% 450 $896 (exactly $896) Tero Lunkka, Valkeala Software
Car Crash Chaos $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Berk Kalfa
Truck Titans · EA $7.99 1 100% 30 $240 (exactly $240) Outlaw Games
Valkeala Climb Race $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) Valkeala Software, Tero Lunkka
Boom Gear $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Asyynk Studios
Buggy Racing Simulator · EA $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Hard Shark Games
Drift Off $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Riyadh Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.