Do I ship it?

Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Sandbox?

Sandbox + Combat

Of 233 developers who shipped a Combat Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 596 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.8k, ×4.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×2442 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 596 games are announced against 152 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 596 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 233
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $5.8k → $10k → $2.2k → $4.7k → $3.5k → $1.8k (still earning) → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 233
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.8k (exactly $2,792)
Top 25% $54k (exactly $54,412)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,533,865)
Developers, 2 yr 233
Released games 574
Announced 596
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Combat; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Open World, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 66% positive over 386,145 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.8k, 1 in 4 over $54k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 94 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 596 games are announced against 152 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Battlefield™ 6 2025 · $620M Arma 3 2013 · $206M Space Engineers 2019 · $60M Core Keeper 2024 · $30M Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas – The Definitive Edition 2023 · $28M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ 6 $69.99 295,442 63% 8.9M $620M (exactly $620,339,567) Battlefield Studios
Arma 3 older $29.99 228,910 90% 6.9M $206M (exactly $205,950,327) Bohemia Interactive
Space Engineers older $19.99 100,533 89% 3.0M $60M (exactly $60,289,640) Keen Software House
Core Keeper older $19.99 50,066 92% 1.5M $30M (exactly $30,024,580) Pugstorm
Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas – The Definitive Edition older $59.99 15,628 80% 469k $28M (exactly $28,125,712) Rockstar Games
BONELAB older $39.99 18,670 82% 560k $22M (exactly $22,398,399) Stress Level Zero
Half Sword · EA $24.99 28,656 71% 860k $21M (exactly $21,483,403) Half Sword Games
VTOL VR older $29.99 19,885 98% 597k $18M (exactly $17,890,534) Boundless Dynamics, LLC
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City – The Definitive Edition older $59.99 9,037 82% 271k $16M (exactly $16,263,889) Rockstar Games
HumanitZ $19.99 11,155 74% 335k $6.7M (exactly $6,689,653) Yodubzz Studios
Farever · EA $19.99 8,968 75% 269k $5.4M (exactly $5,378,110) Shiro Games
Len's Island $24.99 5,935 82% 178k $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) Flow Studio
The Matchless Kungfu $19.99 6,755 79% 203k $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) HuanMos Game
Survive the Nights $19.99 4,719 68% 142k $2.8M (exactly $2,829,984) a2z Interactive
Everwind · EA $24.99 3,454 81% 104k $2.6M (exactly $2,589,464) Enjoy Studio S.A.
SpaceCraft · EA $29.99 2,616 64% 78k $2.4M (exactly $2,353,615) Shiro Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.