Do I ship it?

Games › Open World Survival Craft › Open World Survival Craft + Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + Combat

Of 32 developers who shipped a Combat Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 85 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $55k, ×41 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $9.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $16M, ×12320 the market median. Revenue is up 155% on the market; 85 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 40.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 155% on the market, 85 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $279k → $3.8k → $4.0k → $63k → $145k → $79k → $6.7M (still earning) → $11k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $9.3k (exactly $9,291)
Median $55k (exactly $54,863)
Top 25% $1.1M (exactly $1,098,310)
Top 5% $17M (exactly $16,594,966)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 75
Announced 85
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $17.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 155% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft, Combat; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Base Building, Crafting
Price point
$17.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $17.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 95,583 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $9.3k, median $55k, 1 in 4 over $1.0M, 1 in 20 over $16M.

3 in 10 developers made under $9.3k. 5 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 85 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $183k · 37 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds8 devs · median $183k · 27 announced
  6. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  7. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $154k · 37 announced
  8. + ShooterPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds22 devs · median $125k · 56 announced
  10. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 60 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Windrose 2026 · EA · $43M Core Keeper 2024 · $30M Soulmask 2026 · $17M HumanitZ 2026 · $6.7M Len's Island 2025 · $4.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express
Core Keeper older $19.99 50,066 92% 1.5M $30M (exactly $30,024,580) Pugstorm
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
HumanitZ $19.99 11,155 74% 335k $6.7M (exactly $6,689,653) Yodubzz Studios
Len's Island $24.99 5,935 82% 178k $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) Flow Studio
Survive the Nights $19.99 4,719 68% 142k $2.8M (exactly $2,829,984) a2z Interactive
Aloft · EA $24.99 3,057 82% 92k $2.3M (exactly $2,291,833) Astrolabe Interactive Inc.
Witchspire · EA $22.99 1,849 82% 55k $1.3M (exactly $1,275,255) Envar Games
Lost Rift · EA $24.99 1,465 67% 44k $1.1M (exactly $1,098,310) People Can Fly
Dawn of Defiance · EA older $19.99 1,734 77% 52k $1.0M (exactly $1,039,880) Traega Entertainment
Survive the Fall $24.99 590 65% 18k $442k (exactly $442,323) Angry Bulls Studio
Forgotten Seas $24.99 475 75% 14k $356k (exactly $356,108) Pangea Game Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.