Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Dating Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Dating Sim?

Combat + Dating Sim

Of 23 developers who shipped a Combat Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 45 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $19k, ×30 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.4M, ×3888 the market median. Revenue is up 540% on the market; 45 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 30.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 540% on the market, 45 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Dating Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $23k → $87k → $1.9k → $10k → $38k → $23k (still earning) → $86k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Dating Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $4.8k (exactly $4,790)
Median $19k (exactly $18,862)
Top 25% $86k (exactly $85,714)
Top 5% $2.4M (exactly $2,441,512)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 89
Announced 45
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 540% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Dating Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Action
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 14,806 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.8k, median $19k, 1 in 4 over $85k, 1 in 20 over $2.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.8k. 6 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 45 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced
  12. + ProgrammingPoor odds10 devs · median $14k · 19 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sun Haven 2023 · $17M Neon White 2022 · $13M Yakuza Kiwami 3 & Dark Ties 2026 · $4.0M MOTORSLICE 2026 · $3.3M Eternights 2023 · $2.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sun Haven older $24.99 22,069 79% 662k $17M (exactly $16,545,129) Pixel Sprout Studios
Neon White older $24.99 17,259 97% 518k $13M (exactly $12,939,072) Angel Matrix
Yakuza Kiwami 3 & Dark Ties $59.99 2,229 62% 67k $4.0M (exactly $4,011,531) RGG Studio
MOTORSLICE $19.99 5,467 85% 164k $3.3M (exactly $3,278,560) Regular Studio
Eternights older $29.99 3,046 85% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,740,486) Studio Sai
Yakuza 0 Director's Cut $49.99 1,628 80% 49k $2.4M (exactly $2,441,512) RGG Studio
Rune Factory 5 older $39.99 1,940 76% 58k $2.3M (exactly $2,327,418) Marvelous Inc.
Rune Factory 4 Special older $29.99 2,070 88% 62k $1.9M (exactly $1,862,379) Marvelous Inc.
Wars and Roses older $19.99 2,435 42% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,460,270) Blaze Worlds
Boyfriend Dungeon older $19.99 2,105 91% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,262,368) Kitfox Games
Return from Core $16.99 1,620 75% 49k $826k (exactly $825,714) 顽核社 FuncoreClub
Yakuza Kiwami $19.99 1,334 82% 40k $800k (exactly $800,000) RGG Studio
Yakuza Kiwami 2 $19.99 1,135 82% 34k $681k (exactly $680,660) RGG Studio
Tales of Justice Academy: Winds Arise $10.99 460 71% 14k $152k (exactly $151,662) 九芽川 Ninth Leaf
Awaken: Hentai Dice $14.99 333 57% 10k $150k (exactly $149,750) TopHouse Studio
WANDERER: Broken Bed $14.99 314 65% 9.4k $141k (exactly $141,206) TopHouse Studio
No Socks RPG $9.99 286 92% 8.6k $86k (exactly $85,714) Spicyfuse

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.