Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Gambling

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Gambling game?

Combat + Gambling

Of 24 developers who shipped a Combat Gambling game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 16 developers shipped in the last year and 39 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 39 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Gambling
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $716 → $179 → $836 → $179 → $210 (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Gambling: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Top 5% $16k (exactly $15,569)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 48
Announced 39
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 38%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Gambling; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $7.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $7.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 915 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $240, 1 in 4 over $2.5k, 1 in 20 over $15k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates 2026 · $383k LUCKROT 2026 · $16k Backyard Boxing 2025 · $12k Gamble Tower 2023 · $12k Mimir’s Roulette 2026 · $4.2k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates $19.99 638 70% 19k $383k (exactly $382,609) ReCon Team
LUCKROT $4.99 104 91% 3.1k $16k (exactly $15,569) OptiCube
Backyard Boxing $7.99 49 48% 1.5k $12k (exactly $11,745) Crime House Games, TheShadeGameDev
Gamble Tower older $14.99 26 96% 780 $12k (exactly $11,692) Indiebuild
Mimir’s Roulette $4.99 28 96% 840 $4.2k (exactly $4,192) Momentum Games
Dungeon Trail $7.99 11 100% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) My Brother And I Make Games
One Armed Bandit $4.99 17 88% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) Gral
Peak $1.99 42 92% 1.3k $2.5k (exactly $2,507) Three Hands Co
Green world: Catharsis older $3.99 16 100% 480 $1.9k (exactly $1,915) Jaja City
One-In $4.99 9 100% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) Tidecrest Studios
Slot or Die $13.99 3 33% 90 $1.3k (exactly $1,259) cr0cq
Slashboy $1.99 14 92% 420 $836 (exactly $836) Punch Game Project

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.