Should I ship a Diplomacy RTS?
RTS + Diplomacy
Of 23 developers who shipped a Diplomacy RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 48 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $22k, ×14 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.4M, ×3622 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 48 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.2k (exactly $1,198) |
|---|---|
| Median | $22k (exactly $21,599) |
| Top 25% | $124k (exactly $123,737) |
| Top 5% | $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 23 |
| Released games | 103 |
| Announced | 48 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- RTS, Diplomacy; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Grand Strategy, Simulation
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 26,866 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 5 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 48 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RomeFair
- + Outbreak SimFair
- + HorrorFair
- + NavalFair
- + TabletopFair
- + SportsLong shot
- + PuzzleLong shot
- + World War IIPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
Comparable games
Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M 
Manor Lords 2024 · EA · $92M 
Against the Storm 2023 · $30M 
Dune: Spice Wars 2023 · $12M 
Total War: ROME REMASTERED 2021 · $11M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Hearts of Iron IV | older | $49.99 | 274,901 90% | 8.2M | $412M (exactly $412,269,030) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Manor Lords | · EA older | $39.99 | 76,884 84% | 2.3M | $92M (exactly $92,237,735) | Slavic Magic |
| | Against the Storm | older | $29.99 | 33,271 94% | 998k | $30M (exactly $29,933,919) | Eremite Games |
| | Dune: Spice Wars | older | $34.99 | 11,561 79% | 347k | $12M (exactly $12,135,582) | Shiro Games |
| | Total War: ROME REMASTERED | older | $29.99 | 12,627 77% | 379k | $11M (exactly $11,360,512) | Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive |
 | Romance of the Three Kingdoms XIII | older | $59.99 | 5,828 57% | 175k | $10M (exactly $10,488,652) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
 | Victoria II | older | $19.99 | 16,504 92% | 495k | $9.9M (exactly $9,897,449) | Paradox Development Studio |
 | Age of History II | older | $5.99 | 47,614 89% | 1.4M | $8.6M (exactly $8,556,236) | Łukasz Jakowski |
 | Norland | · EA older | $29.99 | 8,906 81% | 267k | $8.0M (exactly $8,012,728) | Long Jaunt |
 | Sins of a Solar Empire®: Rebellion | older | $19.99 | 10,243 93% | 307k | $6.1M (exactly $6,142,727) | Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment) |
 | ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS 8 REMAKE | $59.99 | 3,118 49% | 94k | $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
 | Age of History 3 | $9.99 | 18,102 85% | 543k | $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) | Łukasz Jakowski | |
 | Cataclismo | $29.99 | 3,899 88% | 117k | $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) | Digital Sun | |
 | Rise of Piracy | · EA | $15.99 | 520 77% | 16k | $249k (exactly $249,444) | IrishJohnGames |
 | AfterWar | $34.99 | 139 72% | 4.2k | $146k (exactly $145,908) | Dmytro Lumen | |
 | States of Power | $11.99 | 344 88% | 10k | $124k (exactly $123,737) | Sarunas | |
 | King's Orders | $14.99 | 257 70% | 7.7k | $116k (exactly $115,573) | AFTERLIFE👻 | |
 | Tlatoani: Aztec Cities | $19.99 | 180 83% | 5.4k | $108k (exactly $107,946) | Perspective Games, Bellwood Studios | |
 | Knights of the Crusades | $19.99 | 166 69% | 5.0k | $100k (exactly $99,550) | Reverie World Studios | |
 | Renaissance Kingdom Wars | $19.99 | 141 70% | 4.2k | $85k (exactly $84,558) | Reverie World Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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