Do I ship it?

GamesStealthStealth + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Stealth game?

Stealth + Collectathon

Of 39 developers who shipped a Collectathon Stealth game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 45 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 21 developers shipped in the last year and 45 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 45 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Stealth + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.9k → $1.9k → $599 → $120 → $1.3k → $239 → $269 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Stealth + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $269 (exactly $269)
Top 25% $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 5% $288k (exactly $288,012)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 127
Announced 45
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Stealth
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Stealth, Collectathon; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Exploration
Price point
$2.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $2.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 3,313 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $270, 1 in 4 over $1.9k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 45 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Stealth with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 12 announced
  2. + World War IIPoor odds11 devs · median $43k · 14 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $30k · 30 announced
  4. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds8 devs · median $27k · 31 announced
  5. + WargamePoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  6. + DinosaursPoor odds10 devs · median $17k · 23 announced
  7. + Gun CustomizationPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  8. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $13k · 57 announced
  9. + Cold WarPoor odds7 devs · median $10k · 31 announced
  10. + HistoricalPoor odds32 devs · median $9.6k · 76 announced
  11. + MilitaryPoor odds43 devs · median $8.5k · 122 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds30 devs · median $7.6k · 89 announced

All 159 pairs on the Stealth page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sapphire Safari · EA $12.99 1,653 92% 50k $644k (exactly $644,174) Kinky Fridays
Boo Men · EA older $7.99 2,088 88% 63k $500k (exactly $500,494) Twisted Corridor👻
Paranormal Cleanup $9.99 961 88% 29k $288k (exactly $288,012) Manic Mice
Hachishaku $9.99 456 85% 14k $137k (exactly $136,663) Trash Panda Games
Ninja Stealth older $4.99 912 76% 27k $137k (exactly $136,526) SC Jogos
[DE:]Fanastasis older $19.99 177 96% 5.3k $106k (exactly $106,147) Mosamosa
Ninja Stealth 2 older $4.99 667 70% 20k $100k (exactly $99,850) SC Jogos
Ninja Stealth 3 older $4.99 545 81% 16k $82k (exactly $81,586) SC Jogos
Blood Facsimile · EA $17.99 59 98% 1.8k $32k (exactly $31,842) Rene McCarthy
Love n Dream: Virtual Happiness older $2.99 316 74% 9.5k $28k (exactly $28,345) Secret Labo
Terrorbytes $7.99 51 84% 1.5k $12k (exactly $12,225) Treetop
Willie's Nightfall $4.99 65 78% 2.0k $9.7k (exactly $9,730) Runebox Game Studio
BALL BOY Simulator $4.99 34 91% 1.0k $5.1k (exactly $5,090) EBA GAME
Filtration $19.99 7 100% 210 $4.2k (exactly $4,198) Whirligig Studios
5番線おじさん救出編 Platform 5 Dungeons $4.99 14 100% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) MFC STUDIO, KOSEI YASUDA, SHINISE GAMES
The Organ Woman | 臓器女 $4.99 13 76% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) RAYBIS GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.