Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Sandbox?

Sandbox + Collectathon

Of 166 developers who shipped a Collectathon Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 244 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.6k, ×4.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×674 the market median. Revenue is up 130% on the market; 244 games are announced against 113 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 130% on the market, 244 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 166
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $1.8k → $5.0k → $1.9k → $1.7k → $2.7k → $3.3k (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 166
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $2.6k (exactly $2,637)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $33,124)
Top 5% $423k (exactly $423,388)
Developers, 2 yr 166
Released games 329
Announced 244
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 130% on the market, supply 105% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Collectathon; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Exploration, Open World
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 3D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 124,850 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $2.6k, 1 in 4 over $33k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 69 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 244 games are announced against 113 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TCG Card Shop Simulator $19.99 47,357 96% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,399,993) OPNeon Games
WEBFISHING $4.99 57,353 97% 1.7M $8.6M (exactly $8,585,744) lamedeveloper
Elin · EA $19.99 8,406 93% 252k $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) Lafrontier
SimplePlanes older $12.99 9,811 93% 294k $3.8M (exactly $3,823,347) Jundroo, LLC
Bang-On Balls: Chronicles older $24.99 4,334 96% 130k $3.2M (exactly $3,249,200) Exit Plan Games
Littlewood older $14.99 6,083 93% 182k $2.7M (exactly $2,735,525) Sean Young
Squirrel with a Gun older $19.99 3,112 86% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,866,266) Dee Dee Creations LLC
Outpath older $14.99 2,898 92% 87k $1.3M (exactly $1,303,231) David Moralejo Sánchez
Teddy's Haven · EA $14.99 2,800 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,259,160) Teddy Bear Games LLC
Farlands $17.99 1,628 89% 49k $879k (exactly $878,632) JanduSoft, Eric Rodríguez
Welcome to Elderfield $17.99 1,334 87% 40k $720k (exactly $719,960) Chris Cote
Sledding Game · EA $7.99 2,915 96% 87k $699k (exactly $698,726) The Sledding Corporation
Sapphire Safari · EA $12.99 1,653 92% 50k $644k (exactly $644,174) Kinky Fridays
Astronomics · EA $19.99 706 89% 21k $423k (exactly $423,388) Numizmatic
Adorable Adventures $19.99 698 93% 21k $419k (exactly $418,591) Wild Sheep Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.