Do I ship it?

GamesReal Time TacticsReal Time Tactics + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Real Time Tactics?

Real Time Tactics + Collectathon

Only 10 developers shipped a Collectathon Real Time Tactics in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Accretion, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $390 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 6 developers shipped in the last year and 14 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 450% on the market, 14 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real Time Tactics + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $150 → $179 → $390
Outcomes for Real Time Tactics + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $390 (exactly $390)
Top 25% $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 5% $6.3k (exactly $6,294)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 34
Announced 14
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 450% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real Time Tactics, Collectathon
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 65% positive over 48 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $390, 1 in 4 over $1.0k, 1 in 20 over $6.2k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 14 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real Time Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DragonsStrong odds17 devs · median $6.6k · 19 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + HackingFair11 devs · median $987 · 11 announced
  4. + World War IIPoor odds24 devs · median $67k · 35 announced
  5. + Cold WarPoor odds9 devs · median $19k · 16 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds88 devs · median $19k · 154 announced
  7. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds19 devs · median $16k · 31 announced
  8. + Real-TimePoor odds16 devs · median $16k · 26 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds16 devs · median $13k · 32 announced
  10. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds20 devs · median $9.6k · 50 announced
  11. + God GamePoor odds19 devs · median $7.8k · 32 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds29 devs · median $7.2k · 111 announced

All 176 pairs on the Real Time Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Control Craft 2 older $4.99 274 72% 8.2k $41k (exactly $41,018) Cristian Manolachi, Atomic Fabrik
Emma's Armaments older $12.40 66 45% 2.0k $25k (exactly $24,552) Caro Builders
Accretion $9.99 21 38% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) ValarFerys
Empire of Empires older $4.99 29 75% 870 $4.3k (exactly $4,341) ·
Mechanical Trap older $4.99 25 88% 750 $3.7k (exactly $3,742) 乘风_AJ游戏工作室 乘风_AJ
CyberSex 2069 older $2.99 34 58% 1.0k $3.1k (exactly $3,050) LarsMidnatt
Brominion $7.99 11 100% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) Hyralism
Umbra older $3.99 22 81% 660 $2.6k (exactly $2,633) Leslie Phillips, QuantuMedia
Spyer older $19.99 2 0% 60 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) GamesBraz
Find My Buddy $6.99 5 100% 150 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) StoicQuest
ARROW WORLD $4.59 4 100% 120 $551 (exactly $551) ATOKESHI
Deckaroo · EA $12.99 1 100% 30 $390 (exactly $390) gororong
Space Base Defense $2.99 3 33% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Morgenmiddag
Super Silent Sensei $2.99 2 0% 60 $179 (exactly $179) Elmeryn Studios
Math4TopDogs $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Mathsandcau
SHADE WALKERS $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Cross Novaris Studio
Poligons $1.00 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Vespa Nera

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.