Do I ship it?

GamesHuntingHunting + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Hunting game?

Hunting + Collectathon

Only 9 developers shipped a Collectathon Hunting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Hachishaku, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $2.7k against a market of $630. 14 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 4.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 125% on the market, 14 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hunting + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Hunting + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,652)
Top 25% $3.4k (exactly $3,443)
Top 5% $137k (exactly $136,663)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 34
Announced 14
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hunting
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Hunting, Collectathon
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $5.20.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 2,256 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $3.4k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 14 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hunting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds19 devs · median $33k · 29 announced
  2. + Base BuildingPoor odds24 devs · median $29k · 70 announced
  3. + Co-opPoor odds30 devs · median $22k · 58 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds19 devs · median $22k · 29 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds31 devs · median $18k · 56 announced
  6. + AgriculturePoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 20 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds37 devs · median $12k · 77 announced
  8. + MagicPoor odds10 devs · median $9.0k · 20 announced
  9. + SimulationPoor odds76 devs · median $5.7k · 128 announced
  10. + BuildingPoor odds37 devs · median $4.8k · 79 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds50 devs · median $4.8k · 116 announced
  12. + RoguelikePoor odds11 devs · median $4.8k · 11 announced

All 72 pairs on the Hunting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Penko Park older $13.99 602 98% 18k $253k (exactly $252,659) Ghostbutter
9th Dawn III older $15.99 501 87% 15k $240k (exactly $240,330) Valorware
Morels: The Hunt older $19.99 260 86% 7.8k $156k (exactly $155,922) Abrams Studios
Hachishaku $9.99 456 85% 14k $137k (exactly $136,663) Trash Panda Games
ScrewUp older $9.99 259 68% 7.8k $78k (exactly $77,622) 199 Cents STUDIO
Goblins Strike Back -Instant Fuck Heroines- older $14.99 44 75% 1.3k $20k (exactly $19,787) Ketchup AjiNo Mayonnaise
EXELIO · EA $19.99 17 64% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) AI Frog Interactive, Inc.
Open Fishing XL older $4.99 45 86% 1.4k $6.7k (exactly $6,736) Kunstaat
Isles of Silence · EA older $5.99 29 86% 870 $5.2k (exactly $5,211) Lonely Frontier Studio
Island Raft Survival 2021: Ocean Escape · EA older $2.99 43 37% 1.3k $3.9k (exactly $3,857) Francolins studio
The Shape Killer - Sniper Game $4.99 23 86% 690 $3.4k (exactly $3,443) SouthBoxStudio
Morels: Out of this World $9.99 11 90% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Abrams Studios LLC
My First Craft Survival $5.20 17 70% 510 $2.7k (exactly $2,652) kuriemeiku
The Hunter's Path $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) JustWallWireHead Games
Peaceful Bug Catching Story $11.99 2 100% 60 $719 (exactly $719) SAT-BOX
Runimals $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Mighty Marv Games
Chickeat Catch $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Yamei Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.