Do I ship it?

GamesCo-op CampaignCo-op Campaign + Third-Person Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Co-op Campaign Third-Person Shooter?

Co-op Campaign + Third-Person Shooter

Only 8 developers shipped a Co-op Campaign Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Gears of War: Reloaded, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×9.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 8 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $16k against a market of $1.5k. 27 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 10.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 27 announced, ×9.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Co-op Campaign + Third-Person Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Co-op Campaign + Third-Person Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $238 (exactly $238)
Median $16k (exactly $15,584)
Top 25% $52k (exactly $52,462)
Top 5% $4.7M (exactly $4,738,815)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 34
Announced 27
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Co-op Campaign
effort 8 / 10 · low · shared campaign state over the network
Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Co-op Campaign, Third-Person Shooter
Price point
$11.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 186,091 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $16k, 1 in 4 over $52k, 1 in 20 over $4.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×9.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Co-op Campaign with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Open WorldPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced
  2. + ZombiesPoor odds12 devs · median $27k · 22 announced
  3. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds18 devs · median $27k · 27 announced
  4. + SurvivalPoor odds18 devs · median $16k · 44 announced
  5. + HorrorPoor odds31 devs · median $14k · 66 announced
  6. + Survival HorrorPoor odds19 devs · median $14k · 39 announced
  7. + ExplorationPoor odds54 devs · median $14k · 153 announced
  8. + Sci-fiPoor odds40 devs · median $13k · 78 announced
  9. + Puzzle PlatformerPoor odds26 devs · median $9.0k · 53 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds19 devs · median $6.6k · 29 announced
  11. + PlatformerPoor odds32 devs · median $6.5k · 90 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds17 devs · median $6.2k · 34 announced

All 81 pairs on the Co-op Campaign page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Resident Evil 6 older $19.99 51,420 77% 1.5M $31M (exactly $30,836,574) Capcom
Resident Evil 5 older $19.99 48,521 87% 1.5M $29M (exactly $29,098,044) Capcom
Aliens: Fireteam Elite older $29.99 21,668 80% 650k $19M (exactly $19,494,700) Cold Iron Studios
Gears 5 older $29.99 21,210 72% 636k $19M (exactly $19,082,637) The Coalition
Strange Brigade older $49.99 8,309 84% 249k $12M (exactly $12,461,007) Rebellion
Orcs Must Die! 3 older $29.99 10,930 85% 328k $9.8M (exactly $9,833,721) Robot Entertainment
Gears of War: Reloaded $39.99 3,950 61% 119k $4.7M (exactly $4,738,815) The Coalition
Saints Row 2 older $9.99 12,848 75% 385k $3.9M (exactly $3,850,546) Volition
Sniper Elite V2 Remastered older $34.99 3,437 78% 103k $3.6M (exactly $3,607,819) Rebellion
HYPERCHARGE: Unboxed older $24.99 3,798 90% 114k $2.8M (exactly $2,847,361) Digital Cybercherries
Dawn of Anarchy $13.99 125 84% 3.8k $52k (exactly $52,462) Quacky Games
Lurking Danger $11.99 49 65% 1.5k $18k (exactly $17,625) Farelas
Tactical Warfare $9.99 52 67% 1.6k $16k (exactly $15,584) Mizrab
Pixel Troopers · EA $4.99 3 66% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Liberator Studios
Sync Together $0.99 8 100% 240 $238 (exactly $238) DarkRook Interactive
Ranger Force $19.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) J Studios Gaming LLC
Toad Turf · EA $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Gatos Malos LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.