Do I ship it?

GamesCo-op CampaignCo-op Campaign + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Co-op Campaign game?

Co-op Campaign + Sci-fi

Of 40 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Co-op Campaign game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 78 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $13k, ×8.7 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $44M, ×29483 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 78 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 78 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Co-op Campaign + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 40
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $17k → $43k → $5.8k → $1.3k → $16k → $26k → $2.5k (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Co-op Campaign + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 40
Bottom 30% $628 (exactly $628)
Median $13k (exactly $13,041)
Top 25% $81k (exactly $80,973)
Top 5% $44M (exactly $44,166,128)
Developers, 2 yr 40
Released games 126
Announced 78
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Co-op Campaign
effort 8 / 10 · low · shared campaign state over the network
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Co-op Campaign; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Online Co-Op, Co-op, Action
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 126,916 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $13k, 1 in 4 over $80k, 1 in 20 over $44M.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 78 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Co-op Campaign with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Open WorldPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced
  2. + ZombiesPoor odds12 devs · median $27k · 22 announced
  3. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds18 devs · median $27k · 27 announced
  4. + SurvivalPoor odds18 devs · median $16k · 44 announced
  5. + HorrorPoor odds31 devs · median $14k · 66 announced
  6. + Survival HorrorPoor odds19 devs · median $14k · 39 announced
  7. + ExplorationPoor odds54 devs · median $14k · 153 announced
  8. + Puzzle PlatformerPoor odds26 devs · median $9.0k · 53 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds19 devs · median $6.6k · 29 announced
  10. + PlatformerPoor odds32 devs · median $6.5k · 90 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds17 devs · median $6.2k · 34 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $6.2k · 30 announced

All 81 pairs on the Co-op Campaign page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Split Fiction $49.99 78,378 97% 2.4M $118M (exactly $117,543,487) Hazelight Studios
Abiotic Factor $34.99 42,075 95% 1.3M $44M (exactly $44,166,128) Deep Field Games
Aliens: Fireteam Elite older $29.99 21,668 80% 650k $19M (exactly $19,494,700) Cold Iron Studios
Gears 5 older $29.99 21,210 72% 636k $19M (exactly $19,082,637) The Coalition
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War II - Anniversary Edition (Classic) older $49.99 8,084 85% 243k $12M (exactly $12,123,575) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac/Linux))
Battlefleet Gothic: Armada 2 older $19.99 9,701 74% 291k $5.8M (exactly $5,817,690) Tindalos Interactive
F.E.A.R. 3 older $19.99 7,407 69% 222k $4.4M (exactly $4,441,978) Day 1 Studios
Command & Conquer™ Red Alert™ 3 older $6.96 14,605 85% 438k $3.0M (exactly $3,049,524) EA Los Angeles
Hellpoint older $34.99 2,582 76% 77k $2.7M (exactly $2,710,325) Cradle Games
Revenge of the Savage Planet $29.99 2,845 86% 85k $2.6M (exactly $2,559,646) Raccoon Logic Studios Inc.
ERA ONE · EA $29.99 1,575 86% 47k $1.4M (exactly $1,417,028) Team Complex LTD
Together: Moon Escape $9.99 868 90% 26k $260k (exactly $260,140) CarlosGameDev
Industrial Annihilation · EA $29.99 206 27% 6.2k $185k (exactly $185,338) Galactic Annihilation
La Quimera · EA $29.99 167 51% 5.0k $150k (exactly $150,250) Reburn
Astroloot · EA $6.99 587 92% 18k $123k (exactly $123,094) Andreas Hager Gaming
Into Black $29.99 125 87% 3.8k $112k (exactly $112,462) The Binary Mill
Chip ‘n Clawz vs. The Brainioids $29.99 90 83% 2.7k $81k (exactly $80,973) Snapshot Games Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.