Do I ship it?

GamesClass-BasedClass-Based + Sports

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sports Class-Based game?

Class-Based + Sports

Only 15 developers shipped a Sports Class-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Run from the Cops!, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×1.1 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $99k, ×66 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 27 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 27 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Class-Based + Sports
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $179 → $2.9k → $2.6k → $1.2k (still earning) → $6.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Class-Based + Sports: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Top 25% $8.1k (exactly $8,092)
Top 5% $100k (exactly $99,575)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 33
Announced 27
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 550% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Class-Based
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Class-Based, Sports
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 827 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $8.0k, 1 in 20 over $99k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Class-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair19 devs · median $6.6k · 22 announced
  2. + Bullet HeavenFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 38 announced
  3. + SupernaturalLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  4. + 2D PlatformerLong shot26 devs · median $539 · 30 announced
  5. + FPSPoor odds22 devs · median $70k · 70 announced
  6. + MMORPGPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  7. + Base BuildingPoor odds18 devs · median $33k · 44 announced
  8. + WarPoor odds17 devs · median $32k · 59 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds16 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  10. + MilitaryPoor odds17 devs · median $13k · 42 announced
  11. + Third-Person ShooterPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  12. + WargamePoor odds14 devs · median $9.4k · 28 announced

All 111 pairs on the Class-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Run from the Cops! $39.99 83 92% 2.5k $100k (exactly $99,575) CAPITAL RUN
Beetleball $7.99 354 93% 11k $85k (exactly $84,854) Bugfight Studio
Goons: Legends & Mayhem older $19.99 77 84% 2.3k $46k (exactly $46,177) RageCure Games
Smash it Wild: Tactical Volleyball Roguelike $11.99 106 83% 3.2k $38k (exactly $38,128) Goblinz Studio, Ernestine
PowerWash Adventure older $7.99 93 75% 2.8k $22k (exactly $22,292) Grass Digital Technology
Gridiron Masters '98 · EA $9.99 27 81% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) Software98
Dorts : A Darts Roguelike $8.99 23 100% 690 $6.2k (exactly $6,203) MovingPixels
Go Babies $0.99 97 81% 2.9k $2.9k (exactly $2,881) ZERO5GAMES
Rotate or Die $0.99 94 84% 2.8k $2.8k (exactly $2,792) ZERO5GAMES
Sokker $2.99 29 86% 870 $2.6k (exactly $2,601) Sokpop Collective
.FARM RACING. $4.99 11 90% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) KOTOMANN
FootballLife $17.99 3 33% 90 $1.6k (exactly $1,619) 小伍

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.