Do I ship it?

Games › Class-Based › Class-Based + FPS

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Class-Based FPS?

Class-Based + FPS

Of 22 developers who shipped a Class-Based FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 70 more are announced, ×5.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $70k, ×47 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $53M, ×35974 the market median. Revenue is up 700% on the market; 70 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 46.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 700% on the market, 70 announced, ×5.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Class-Based + FPS
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $205k → $22k → $1.8k → $571k → $3.1k → $887k (still earning) → $3.6M (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Class-Based + FPS: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $3.1k (exactly $3,148)
Median $70k (exactly $69,704)
Top 25% $1.6M (exactly $1,606,346)
Top 5% $54M (exactly $53,889,324)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 99
Announced 70
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 700% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 28%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Class-Based
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Class-Based, FPS; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, PvP
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 154,136 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.2k, median $70k, 1 in 4 over $1.6M, 1 in 20 over $53M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.2k. 5 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 70 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Class-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair19 devs · median $6.6k · 22 announced
  2. + Bullet HeavenFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 38 announced
  3. + SupernaturalLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  4. + 2D PlatformerLong shot26 devs · median $539 · 30 announced
  5. + MMORPGPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  6. + Base BuildingPoor odds18 devs · median $33k · 44 announced
  7. + WarPoor odds17 devs · median $32k · 59 announced
  8. + Souls-likePoor odds16 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  9. + MilitaryPoor odds17 devs · median $13k · 42 announced
  10. + Third-Person ShooterPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  11. + WargamePoor odds14 devs · median $9.4k · 28 announced
  12. + ManagementPoor odds26 devs · median $8.1k · 64 announced

All 111 pairs on the Class-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Deep Rock Galactic 2020 · $273M Warhammer 40,000: Darktide 2022 · $130M WARDOGS 2026 · EA · $70M BattleBit Remastered 2023 · EA · $57M Marathon 2026 · $54M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
Warhammer 40,000: Darktide older $39.99 108,477 72% 3.3M $130M (exactly $130,139,857) Fatshark
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
BattleBit Remastered · EA older $14.99 127,680 82% 3.8M $57M (exactly $57,417,696) SgtOkiDoki, Vilaskis, TheLiquidHorse
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
Chivalry: Medieval Warfare older $24.99 44,486 83% 1.3M $33M (exactly $33,351,154) Torn Banner Studios
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
Killing Floor older $19.99 39,850 95% 1.2M $24M (exactly $23,898,045) Tripwire Interactive
Isonzo older $39.99 14,434 85% 433k $17M (exactly $17,316,470) BlackMill Games
Tiny Tina's Wonderlands older $29.99 17,779 70% 533k $16M (exactly $15,995,766) Gearbox Software
Onward $24.99 8,621 69% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,463,164) Downpour Interactive
Gallipoli $29.99 4,015 78% 120k $3.6M (exactly $3,612,296) BlackMill Games
Forefront $27.99 1,913 84% 57k $1.6M (exactly $1,606,346) Triangle Factory
FBC: Firebreak $19.99 1,985 65% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,190,404) Remedy Entertainment
The Midnight Walkers · EA $19.99 1,479 54% 44k $887k (exactly $886,956) Oneway Ticket Studio
Heroes of Valor · EA $14.99 1,324 90% 40k $595k (exactly $595,403) Fancy Cat Interactive
Neighbors: Suburban Warfare · EA $9.99 1,906 66% 57k $571k (exactly $571,228) Invisible Walls

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.