Do I ship it?

GamesClass-BasedClass-Based + Military

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Military Class-Based game?

Class-Based + Military

Only 17 developers shipped a Military Class-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, WARDOGS, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $13k, ×9.0 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $69M, ×46651 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 42 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 42 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Class-Based + Military
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.2k → $1.4M → $4.5k → $13k (still earning) → $3.6M (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Class-Based + Military: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $3.1k (exactly $3,148)
Median $13k (exactly $13,486)
Top 25% $1.6M (exactly $1,606,346)
Top 5% $70M (exactly $69,882,525)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 60
Announced 42
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Class-Based
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Military
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Class-Based; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Tactical, Action, FPS
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 81,323 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.2k, median $13k, 1 in 4 over $1.6M, 1 in 20 over $69M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.2k. 4 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Class-Based with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair19 devs · median $6.6k · 22 announced
  2. + Bullet HeavenFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 38 announced
  3. + SupernaturalLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  4. + 2D PlatformerLong shot26 devs · median $539 · 30 announced
  5. + FPSPoor odds22 devs · median $70k · 70 announced
  6. + MMORPGPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  7. + Base BuildingPoor odds18 devs · median $33k · 44 announced
  8. + WarPoor odds17 devs · median $32k · 59 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds16 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  10. + Third-Person ShooterPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  11. + WargamePoor odds14 devs · median $9.4k · 28 announced
  12. + ManagementPoor odds26 devs · median $8.1k · 64 announced

All 111 pairs on the Class-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
BattleBit Remastered · EA older $14.99 127,680 82% 3.8M $57M (exactly $57,417,696) SgtOkiDoki, Vilaskis, TheLiquidHorse
Isonzo older $39.99 14,434 85% 433k $17M (exactly $17,316,470) BlackMill Games
Onward $24.99 8,621 69% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,463,164) Downpour Interactive
Day of Defeat: Source older $9.99 16,004 90% 480k $4.8M (exactly $4,796,399) Valve
Gallipoli $29.99 4,015 78% 120k $3.6M (exactly $3,612,296) BlackMill Games
Tower Dominion $17.49 5,117 85% 154k $2.7M (exactly $2,684,890) Parallel 45 Games
Forefront $27.99 1,913 84% 57k $1.6M (exactly $1,606,346) Triangle Factory
Three Kingdoms Mushouden $24.99 1,876 72% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,406,437) NanBei Studio
War Dust VR: 32v32 Battlefields older $24.99 1,489 80% 45k $1.1M (exactly $1,116,303) raptor lab
Heroes of Valor · EA $14.99 1,324 90% 40k $595k (exactly $595,403) Fancy Cat Interactive
Future War Tactics: SOF vs Alien Invasion – Turn-Based Strategy $9.99 138 60% 4.1k $41k (exactly $41,359) QuadCom Interactive
Shadows of Soldiers $9.99 45 75% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) Ghost in the Wire
SkillWarz · EA $9.99 24 95% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) Baltverge Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.