Do I ship it?

Games › Class-Based › Class-Based + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation Class-Based game?

Class-Based + Simulation

Of 56 developers who shipped a Simulation Class-Based game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 84 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×3.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $6.4M, ×4315 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 84 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 84 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Class-Based + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 56
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $34k → $2.4k → $9.4k → $13k → $3.0k (still earning) → $4.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Class-Based + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 56
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,396)
Top 25% $44k (exactly $43,621)
Top 5% $6.5M (exactly $6,463,164)
Developers, 2 yr 56
Released games 123
Announced 84
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 110% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Class-Based
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Class-Based, Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Action
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 80,759 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $43k, 1 in 20 over $6.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 8 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 84 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Class-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair19 devs · median $6.6k · 22 announced
  2. + Bullet HeavenFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 38 announced
  3. + SupernaturalLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  4. + 2D PlatformerLong shot26 devs · median $539 · 30 announced
  5. + FPSPoor odds22 devs · median $70k · 70 announced
  6. + MMORPGPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  7. + Base BuildingPoor odds18 devs · median $33k · 44 announced
  8. + WarPoor odds17 devs · median $32k · 59 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds16 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  10. + MilitaryPoor odds17 devs · median $13k · 42 announced
  11. + Third-Person ShooterPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  12. + WargamePoor odds14 devs · median $9.4k · 28 announced

All 111 pairs on the Class-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

WARDOGS 2026 · EA · $70M Chivalry: Medieval Warfare 2012 · $33M Isonzo 2022 · $17M FINAL FANTASY TACTICS - The Ivalice Chronicles 2025 · $8.5M Onward 2025 · $6.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Chivalry: Medieval Warfare older $24.99 44,486 83% 1.3M $33M (exactly $33,351,154) Torn Banner Studios
Isonzo older $39.99 14,434 85% 433k $17M (exactly $17,316,470) BlackMill Games
FINAL FANTASY TACTICS - The Ivalice Chronicles $49.99 5,673 89% 170k $8.5M (exactly $8,507,798) Square Enix
Onward $24.99 8,621 69% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,463,164) Downpour Interactive
Day of Defeat: Source older $9.99 16,004 90% 480k $4.8M (exactly $4,796,399) Valve
GNOSIA older $24.99 4,855 93% 146k $3.6M (exactly $3,639,794) Petit Depotto
Gallipoli $29.99 4,015 78% 120k $3.6M (exactly $3,612,296) BlackMill Games
PULSAR: Lost Colony older $19.99 4,409 89% 132k $2.6M (exactly $2,644,077) Leafy Games
Three Kingdoms Mushouden $24.99 1,876 72% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,406,437) NanBei Studio
Fantasy Maiden Wars - DREAM OF THE STRAY DREAMER - $34.99 582 98% 17k $611k (exactly $610,925) さんぼん堂
Eslabong · EA $14.99 1,077 95% 32k $484k (exactly $484,327) shirowita
Flowers and Deities $12.99 265 90% 8.0k $103k (exactly $103,270) Chill Winter Studio
Run from the Cops! $39.99 83 92% 2.5k $100k (exactly $99,575) CAPITAL RUN
Vespera $7.99 317 67% 9.5k $76k (exactly $75,985) Idle Gamers

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.