Do I ship it?

GamesClass-BasedClass-Based + Sandbox

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sandbox Class-Based game?

Class-Based + Sandbox

Only 15 developers shipped a Sandbox Class-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Din's Champion, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×2.0 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $95k, ×64 the market median. Revenue is up 7085% on the market; 27 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 7085% on the market, 27 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Class-Based + Sandbox
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $539 → $20k → $22k (still earning) → $65k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Class-Based + Sandbox: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,967)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $34,183)
Top 5% $96k (exactly $95,952)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 25
Announced 27
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 7085% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Class-Based
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Class-Based, Sandbox
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 805 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $34k, 1 in 20 over $95k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Class-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair19 devs · median $6.6k · 22 announced
  2. + Bullet HeavenFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 38 announced
  3. + SupernaturalLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  4. + 2D PlatformerLong shot26 devs · median $539 · 30 announced
  5. + FPSPoor odds22 devs · median $70k · 70 announced
  6. + MMORPGPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  7. + Base BuildingPoor odds18 devs · median $33k · 44 announced
  8. + WarPoor odds17 devs · median $32k · 59 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds16 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  10. + MilitaryPoor odds17 devs · median $13k · 42 announced
  11. + Third-Person ShooterPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  12. + WargamePoor odds14 devs · median $9.4k · 28 announced

All 111 pairs on the Class-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
One Military Camp older $24.99 684 75% 21k $513k (exactly $512,795) Abylight Barcelona
Mud and Blood · EA older $12.99 861 87% 26k $336k (exactly $335,532) urbgames
Din's Champion $19.99 160 85% 4.8k $96k (exactly $95,952) Soldak Entertainment
Afallon · EA $11.99 262 79% 7.9k $94k (exactly $94,241) Stargazing interactive
Adventure Land - The Code MMORPG $14.99 144 84% 4.3k $65k (exactly $64,757) Wizard
Yuma Nest · EA $19.99 57 89% 1.7k $34k (exactly $34,183) Piokou
Portalborn · EA $9.99 72 93% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,578) TheHand
Next Run $9.99 66 75% 2.0k $20k (exactly $19,780) Clarus Victoria
Mythscroll $12.99 23 65% 690 $9.0k (exactly $8,963) Seedborne
Medieval Arms older $14.99 12 66% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Goodline Games
Company Rising $8.99 11 18% 330 $3.0k (exactly $2,967) Director Liu
Broad Sword $11.99 8 100% 240 $2.9k (exactly $2,878) Refractal Studio
Descension $12.99 2 100% 60 $779 (exactly $779) Kaleido Skope Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.