Do I ship it?

GamesClass-BasedClass-Based + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Class-Based game?

Class-Based + Puzzle

Only 17 developers shipped a Puzzle Class-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Puzzle Quest: Immortal Edition, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×0.5 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360. 37 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper, while revenue is up 20% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 37 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Class-Based + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.1k → $390 → $719 → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Class-Based + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Top 5% $235k (exactly $234,743)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 48
Announced 37
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Class-Based
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Class-Based, Puzzle; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 1980s, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 637 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $720, 1 in 4 over $2.0k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Class-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair19 devs · median $6.6k · 22 announced
  2. + Bullet HeavenFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 38 announced
  3. + SupernaturalLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  4. + 2D PlatformerLong shot26 devs · median $539 · 30 announced
  5. + FPSPoor odds22 devs · median $70k · 70 announced
  6. + MMORPGPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  7. + Base BuildingPoor odds18 devs · median $33k · 44 announced
  8. + WarPoor odds17 devs · median $32k · 59 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds16 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  10. + MilitaryPoor odds17 devs · median $13k · 42 announced
  11. + Third-Person ShooterPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  12. + WargamePoor odds14 devs · median $9.4k · 28 announced

All 111 pairs on the Class-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Potato Flowers in Full Bloom older $17.99 654 95% 20k $353k (exactly $352,964) Pon Pon Games
Quantum Protocol older $12.99 625 90% 19k $244k (exactly $243,562) Kaio Meris
Puzzle Quest: Immortal Edition $14.99 522 77% 16k $235k (exactly $234,743) Infinity Plus 2
Rollers of the Realm older $9.99 375 90% 11k $112k (exactly $112,388) Phantom Compass
Roll Player - The Board Game older $14.99 180 91% 5.4k $81k (exactly $80,946) Mipmap Digital
MatchR: Now Hiring older $4.99 70 90% 2.1k $10k (exactly $10,479) Delirium Tremens Games
I Have Low Stats But My Class Is "Leader", So I Recruited Everyone I Know To Fight The Dark Lord older $14.99 15 66% 450 $6.7k (exactly $6,746) Cannibal Interactive
Dungeons and Ducklings $4.99 43 100% 1.3k $6.4k (exactly $6,437) Bear Belly Games
Nothmere $11.99 16 100% 480 $5.8k (exactly $5,755) Wraithwood Studios
The Summoning older $9.99 17 88% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Event Horizon Software
DungeonSweeper $7.99 21 76% 630 $5.0k (exactly $5,034) Smoketree Studios
2048 - Dungeons $4.99 14 100% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) Retroverse Studio
Human Parking Simulator $8.99 7 85% 210 $1.9k (exactly $1,888) NewAtlantisGameStudio
Christmas Fables: The Wishing Store Collector's Edition $8.99 4 50% 120 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) Do Games Limited
Wolftown $9.99 3 100% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Portponky
The Elquest | The Legend of Immortal Dremond $7.99 3 66% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Domax Games
Questy Chess $5.99 4 100% 120 $719 (exactly $719) Dadako

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.