Do I ship it?

GamesClass-BasedClass-Based + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Class-Based game?

Class-Based + Physics

Only 13 developers shipped a Physics Class-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Birds of War, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.9k, ×2.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×88 the market median. Revenue is up 155% on the market; 47 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 155% on the market, 47 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Class-Based + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.6k → $179 → $3.0k → $599 (still earning) → $85k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Class-Based + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $3.9k (exactly $3,896)
Top 25% $5.1k (exactly $5,095)
Top 5% $132k (exactly $131,568)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 49
Announced 47
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 155% on the market, supply 235% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Class-Based
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Class-Based, Physics
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 888 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.9k, 1 in 4 over $5.0k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Class-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair19 devs · median $6.6k · 22 announced
  2. + Bullet HeavenFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 38 announced
  3. + SupernaturalLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  4. + 2D PlatformerLong shot26 devs · median $539 · 30 announced
  5. + FPSPoor odds22 devs · median $70k · 70 announced
  6. + MMORPGPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  7. + Base BuildingPoor odds18 devs · median $33k · 44 announced
  8. + WarPoor odds17 devs · median $32k · 59 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds16 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  10. + MilitaryPoor odds17 devs · median $13k · 42 announced
  11. + Third-Person ShooterPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  12. + WargamePoor odds14 devs · median $9.4k · 28 announced

All 111 pairs on the Class-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TRIBES 3: Rivals · EA older $19.99 1,324 61% 40k $794k (exactly $794,003) Prophecy Games
SNKRX older $2.99 4,198 94% 126k $377k (exactly $376,561) a327ex
Fire Commander older $14.99 325 66% 9.8k $146k (exactly $146,152) Atomic Wolf, Pixel Crow Games
Birds of War $9.99 439 87% 13k $132k (exactly $131,568) HexNest Games
Rollers of the Realm older $9.99 375 90% 11k $112k (exactly $112,388) Phantom Compass
Ironlights older $19.99 146 78% 4.4k $88k (exactly $87,556) E McNeill
Beetleball $7.99 354 93% 11k $85k (exactly $84,854) Bugfight Studio
Goons: Legends & Mayhem older $19.99 77 84% 2.3k $46k (exactly $46,177) RageCure Games
PowerWash Adventure older $7.99 93 75% 2.8k $22k (exactly $22,292) Grass Digital Technology
PowerWash Adventure VR older $6.99 90 74% 2.7k $19k (exactly $18,873) Grass Digital Technology
Dorts : A Darts Roguelike $8.99 23 100% 690 $6.2k (exactly $6,203) MovingPixels
Battle Squares $9.99 17 76% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Feesh Studio
MotorCubs RC $12.99 11 72% 330 $4.3k (exactly $4,287) Draisey Digital LLC
Gigils: Chomp Together $7.99 17 64% 510 $4.1k (exactly $4,075) Missset
Push & Plunder $9.99 13 84% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Skylor Beck
Broad Sword $11.99 8 100% 240 $2.9k (exactly $2,878) Refractal Studio
BattleHeights · EA $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Wondersoft Studio
Brick By Brick $4.99 4 75% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Delirium Tremens Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.