Do I ship it?

GamesClass-BasedClass-Based + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Class-Based game?

Class-Based + Nature

Only 10 developers shipped a Nature Class-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Tail and Chaos, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×1.1 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $6.2k, ×4.2 the market median. Revenue is up 120% on the market; 23 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 120% on the market, 23 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Class-Based + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Class-Based + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,648)
Top 25% $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 5% $6.3k (exactly $6,287)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 28
Announced 23
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 120% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Class-Based
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Class-Based
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 85% positive over 102 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $1.9k, 1 in 20 over $6.2k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 23 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Class-Based with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair19 devs · median $6.6k · 22 announced
  2. + Bullet HeavenFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 38 announced
  3. + SupernaturalLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  4. + 2D PlatformerLong shot26 devs · median $539 · 30 announced
  5. + FPSPoor odds22 devs · median $70k · 70 announced
  6. + MMORPGPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  7. + Base BuildingPoor odds18 devs · median $33k · 44 announced
  8. + WarPoor odds17 devs · median $32k · 59 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds16 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  10. + MilitaryPoor odds17 devs · median $13k · 42 announced
  11. + Third-Person ShooterPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  12. + WargamePoor odds14 devs · median $9.4k · 28 announced

All 111 pairs on the Class-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tenderfoot Tactics older $14.99 220 81% 6.6k $99k (exactly $98,934) Kevin Maxon, Michael Bell, Isa Hutchins… (Kevin Maxon, Michael Bell, Isa Hutchinson, Taylor Thomas, Zoe Vartanian, Madison Pathe)
DEFENDUN : Hero Defense older $8.99 159 72% 4.8k $43k (exactly $42,882) MYMEStudio
White Lavender older $4.99 266 92% 8.0k $40k (exactly $39,820) Sokpop Collective, Tom van den Boogaart
Tail and Chaos · EA $4.99 42 85% 1.3k $6.3k (exactly $6,287) Shnumi
Solnox - Grimoire of Seasons $6.66 12 75% 360 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) ByteRockers' Games
Mystic Forest older $4.99 16 75% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Lua Ludica
Beyond The Threshold $4.99 13 92% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) William Ritson
Little Garden · EA older $4.99 12 41% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) Redruby Studio
SALTWATER $3.99 14 100% 420 $1.7k (exactly $1,676) Lean Hog, shinyvictorcarp
Valenium $10.99 5 20% 150 $1.6k (exactly $1,648) Need3RD
Farmyard Survivors $4.99 9 100% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) Viron Games
Brick By Brick $4.99 4 75% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Delirium Tremens Games
Ashbound Expanse $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) AxionDriftGame
Wildlife Warfare · EA $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) Jerome Craig
Garden Monsters $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) El Vencedor

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.