Do I ship it?

GamesClass-BasedClass-Based + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Class-Based game?

Class-Based + Historical

Only 7 developers shipped a Historical Class-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Gallipoli, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×6.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $240k against a market of $1.5k. 24 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 160.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 17960% on the market, 24 announced, ×6.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Class-Based + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Class-Based + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $26k (exactly $26,445)
Median $240k (exactly $240,220)
Top 25% $2.7M (exactly $2,660,990)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,612,296)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 27
Announced 24
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $24.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 17960% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Class-Based
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Class-Based
Price point
$24.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 88,739 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $27k, median $240k, 1 in 4 over $2.6M, 1 in 20 over $3.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $27k. 24 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Class-Based with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair19 devs · median $6.6k · 22 announced
  2. + Bullet HeavenFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 38 announced
  3. + SupernaturalLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  4. + 2D PlatformerLong shot26 devs · median $539 · 30 announced
  5. + FPSPoor odds22 devs · median $70k · 70 announced
  6. + MMORPGPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  7. + Base BuildingPoor odds18 devs · median $33k · 44 announced
  8. + WarPoor odds17 devs · median $32k · 59 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds16 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  10. + MilitaryPoor odds17 devs · median $13k · 42 announced
  11. + Third-Person ShooterPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  12. + WargamePoor odds14 devs · median $9.4k · 28 announced

All 111 pairs on the Class-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Chivalry: Medieval Warfare older $24.99 44,486 83% 1.3M $33M (exactly $33,351,154) Torn Banner Studios
Isonzo older $39.99 14,434 85% 433k $17M (exactly $17,316,470) BlackMill Games
Day of Defeat: Source older $9.99 16,004 90% 480k $4.8M (exactly $4,796,399) Valve
Gallipoli $29.99 4,015 78% 120k $3.6M (exactly $3,612,296) BlackMill Games
NORSE: Oath of Blood $34.99 2,535 56% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,660,990) Arctic Hazard
Three Kingdoms Mushouden $24.99 1,876 72% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,406,437) NanBei Studio
Day of Defeat older $4.99 4,480 88% 134k $671k (exactly $670,656) Valve
Broken Edge older $14.99 593 86% 18k $267k (exactly $266,672) TREBUCHET
Expeditions: Samurai · EA $29.99 267 59% 8.0k $240k (exactly $240,220) Campfire Cabal
Rise of a Legend · EA $17.99 49 77% 1.5k $26k (exactly $26,445) Masquarade, Nicholas St. Germain
Navigating The Labyrinth $14.99 13 76% 390 $5.8k (exactly $5,846) Dragon Dropper
King's Subsidy $11.99 15 80% 450 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Marcin Henzel

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.