Do I ship it?

GamesClass-BasedClass-Based + Gun Customization

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gun Customization Class-Based game?

Class-Based + Gun Customization

Only 16 developers shipped a Gun Customization Class-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Marathon, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.0k, ×3.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $53M, ×35974 the market median. Revenue is up 315% on the market; 32 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 315% on the market, 32 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Class-Based + Gun Customization
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $2.2k → $3.1k → $6.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Class-Based + Gun Customization: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $5.0k (exactly $4,984)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,486)
Top 5% $54M (exactly $53,889,324)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 41
Announced 32
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 315% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Class-Based
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Gun Customization
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Class-Based, Gun Customization; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, PvP
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 47,452 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $5.0k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $53M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Class-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair19 devs · median $6.6k · 22 announced
  2. + Bullet HeavenFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 38 announced
  3. + SupernaturalLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  4. + 2D PlatformerLong shot26 devs · median $539 · 30 announced
  5. + FPSPoor odds22 devs · median $70k · 70 announced
  6. + MMORPGPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  7. + Base BuildingPoor odds18 devs · median $33k · 44 announced
  8. + WarPoor odds17 devs · median $32k · 59 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds16 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  10. + MilitaryPoor odds17 devs · median $13k · 42 announced
  11. + Third-Person ShooterPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  12. + WargamePoor odds14 devs · median $9.4k · 28 announced

All 111 pairs on the Class-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BattleBit Remastered · EA older $14.99 127,680 82% 3.8M $57M (exactly $57,417,696) SgtOkiDoki, Vilaskis, TheLiquidHorse
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
SYNTHETIK 2 · EA older $19.99 3,202 81% 96k $1.9M (exactly $1,920,239) Flow Fire Games
Forefront $27.99 1,913 84% 57k $1.6M (exactly $1,606,346) Triangle Factory
Roboquest VR $29.99 395 87% 12k $355k (exactly $355,382) Flat2VR Studios, RyseUp Studios
Anima : The Reign of Darkness older $11.99 613 69% 18k $220k (exactly $220,496) Redeev
Zombie Builder Defense 2 older $9.99 210 84% 6.3k $63k (exactly $62,937) Noham Games
Shadows of Soldiers $9.99 45 75% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) Ghost in the Wire
Neon Striker · EA $4.99 85 87% 2.6k $13k (exactly $12,724) Zeno's Adventure Team, Nickonhawk Games
Death Harvest · EA older $12.99 26 69% 780 $10k (exactly $10,132) LaserOnion
No More Demon · EA $12.99 16 87% 480 $6.2k (exactly $6,235) Mundus Games
Battle Squares $9.99 17 76% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Feesh Studio
Cosmic Carnage $4.49 37 94% 1.1k $5.0k (exactly $4,984) LionSword
Red Crucible Assault · EA $14.99 7 100% 210 $3.1k (exactly $3,148) Massive Head Games
Grimdark Survivors $4.99 18 5% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) Hityara games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.