Do I ship it?

GamesClass-BasedClass-Based + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Class-Based game?

Class-Based + Dystopian

Only 12 developers shipped a Dystopian Class-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Forefront, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×5.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×1.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×1072 the market median. Revenue is up 3750% on the market; 31 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 3750% on the market, 31 announced, ×5.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Class-Based + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $14k → $719 → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Class-Based + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $360 (exactly $360)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,697)
Top 25% $101k (exactly $100,999)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,606,346)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 30
Announced 31
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 3750% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 30%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Class-Based
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Class-Based
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 2,922 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Class-Based with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair19 devs · median $6.6k · 22 announced
  2. + Bullet HeavenFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 38 announced
  3. + SupernaturalLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  4. + 2D PlatformerLong shot26 devs · median $539 · 30 announced
  5. + FPSPoor odds22 devs · median $70k · 70 announced
  6. + MMORPGPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  7. + Base BuildingPoor odds18 devs · median $33k · 44 announced
  8. + WarPoor odds17 devs · median $32k · 59 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds16 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  10. + MilitaryPoor odds17 devs · median $13k · 42 announced
  11. + Third-Person ShooterPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  12. + WargamePoor odds14 devs · median $9.4k · 28 announced

All 111 pairs on the Class-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deadlink older $24.99 2,871 90% 86k $2.2M (exactly $2,152,389) Gruby Entertainment
Forefront $27.99 1,913 84% 57k $1.6M (exactly $1,606,346) Triangle Factory
Capes older $39.99 446 67% 13k $535k (exactly $535,066) Spitfire Interactive
Roboquest VR $29.99 395 87% 12k $355k (exactly $355,382) Flat2VR Studios, RyseUp Studios
Power Chord older $19.99 170 71% 5.1k $102k (exactly $101,949) Big Blue Bubble
Sonny Legacy Collection $9.99 337 91% 10k $101k (exactly $100,999) Krin Juangbhanich
UNHUMAN $3.99 161 73% 4.8k $19k (exactly $19,272) Kinda Lowkey Games
Hacky $4.99 95 93% 2.9k $14k (exactly $14,222) Cuddle Code
MatchR: Now Hiring older $4.99 70 90% 2.1k $10k (exactly $10,479) Delirium Tremens Games
Spelldrifter older $19.99 16 62% 480 $9.6k (exactly $9,595) Free Range Games, Protopixel
Nybble $9.99 9 100% 270 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Gummy Skunk
Marks of Ki $5.99 5 20% 150 $898 (exactly $898) KieGames
Questy Chess $5.99 4 100% 120 $719 (exactly $719) Dadako
Digital Eclipse: Cyberpunk Survivor $11.99 1 0% 30 $360 (exactly $360) Hibernyx
BIZ Helmsman · EA $5.99 2 0% 60 $359 (exactly $359) 22°N explorer studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.