Do I ship it?

GamesClass-BasedClass-Based + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Class-Based game?

Class-Based + Dragons

Only 10 developers shipped a Dragon Class-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Nameless: Slay Dragon, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.8k, ×5.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $5.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×739 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 28 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 28 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Class-Based + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Class-Based + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $5.0k (exactly $5,034)
Median $7.8k (exactly $7,794)
Top 25% $82k (exactly $81,559)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 27
Announced 28
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Class-Based
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Class-Based
Price point
$12.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 87% positive over 2,561 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $5.1k, median $7.8k, 1 in 4 over $81k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $5.1k. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Class-Based with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair19 devs · median $6.6k · 22 announced
  2. + Bullet HeavenFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 38 announced
  3. + SupernaturalLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  4. + 2D PlatformerLong shot26 devs · median $539 · 30 announced
  5. + FPSPoor odds22 devs · median $70k · 70 announced
  6. + MMORPGPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  7. + Base BuildingPoor odds18 devs · median $33k · 44 announced
  8. + WarPoor odds17 devs · median $32k · 59 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds16 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  10. + MilitaryPoor odds17 devs · median $13k · 42 announced
  11. + Third-Person ShooterPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  12. + WargamePoor odds14 devs · median $9.4k · 28 announced

All 111 pairs on the Class-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wizardry: Proving Grounds of the Mad Overlord older $34.99 1,209 77% 36k $1.3M (exactly $1,269,087) Digital Eclipse
The Nameless: Slay Dragon $17.99 2,050 91% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) The Nameless Epic
Talisman: Digital 5th Edition $29.99 227 70% 6.8k $204k (exactly $204,232) Nomad Games
Dark Quest 4 $19.99 136 75% 4.1k $82k (exactly $81,559) Brain Seal Ltd
Wyvia older $9.99 142 94% 4.3k $43k (exactly $42,557) Blast Programming
Tears of Adria older $13.99 75 86% 2.3k $31k (exactly $31,478) Ark Island Studio
Infinite Mana older $24.99 34 76% 1.0k $25k (exactly $25,490) Wonderlust Games
Nevergrind $12.99 60 68% 1.8k $23k (exactly $23,382) Neverworks Games
Fantasy Empires older $9.99 33 84% 990 $9.9k (exactly $9,890) Silicon Knights
Jettatura older $12.99 21 90% 630 $8.2k (exactly $8,184) Nick Baker
Lastlore Saga $12.99 20 70% 600 $7.8k (exactly $7,794) 30 Minute Games
Open The Gate: Just A Little $5.99 37 75% 1.1k $6.6k (exactly $6,649) Abubu Dance
DungeonSweeper $7.99 21 76% 630 $5.0k (exactly $5,034) Smoketree Studios
Arch Legends $7.99 9 44% 270 $2.2k (exactly $2,157) WKM Studios
Call of Heroes: Tower Defense $14.99 1 0% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Bakart Games - Rômulo
Ninety Nine Dungeons $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Donnie Lee

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.