Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + City Builder

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP City Builder?

PvP + City Builder

Of 30 developers who shipped a PvP City Builder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 73 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×0.5 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210. 73 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper, while revenue is up 820% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 820% on the market, 73 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + City Builder
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $8.1k → $8.2k → $359 → $210 → $2.3k (still earning) → $4.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + City Builder: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $208 (exactly $208)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,790)
Top 5% $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 120
Announced 73
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 820% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 34%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
City Builder
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, City Builder; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Base Building, Economy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Isometric, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 57% positive over 57,245 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $720, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $6.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 73 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition older $39.99 72,275 85% 2.2M $87M (exactly $86,708,318) World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios)
Northgard: Definitive Edition older $34.99 54,478 85% 1.6M $57M (exactly $57,185,557) Shiro Games
Age of Empires III: Definitive Edition older $34.99 37,093 84% 1.1M $39M (exactly $38,936,522) World's Edge, Tantalus Media, Forgotten… (World's Edge, Tantalus Media, Forgotten Empires)
Cossacks 3 older $19.99 12,406 82% 372k $7.4M (exactly $7,439,878) GSC Game World
Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition $19.99 10,627 92% 319k $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012) Firefly Studios
Mad Games Tycoon 2 older $24.99 7,355 93% 221k $5.5M (exactly $5,514,044) Eggcode
Kingdoms Reborn · EA older $19.99 8,862 90% 266k $5.3M (exactly $5,314,541) Earthshine
Age of Wonders: Planetfall older $29.99 4,758 80% 143k $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) Triumph Studios
Offworld Trading Company older $29.99 3,598 77% 108k $3.2M (exactly $3,237,121) Mohawk Games
ZeroSpace · EA $39.99 1,161 78% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) Starlance Studios, Ironward
Railroad Corporation 2 $39.99 376 69% 11k $451k (exactly $451,087) Corbie Games
SkyShard: City Battler · EA $14.99 106 97% 3.2k $48k (exactly $47,668) ItsBen321
Lords of Solgrund $19.99 57 77% 1.7k $34k (exactly $34,183) Sillylas
TFC2: The Fertile Crescent 2 - Collapse of The Bronze Age · EA $17.99 33 81% 990 $18k (exactly $17,810) Wield Interactive
Explorers of Esmar · EA $15.99 35 85% 1.1k $17k (exactly $16,790) Tipri Games
Wild Country $24.99 11 54% 330 $8.2k (exactly $8,247) Lost Native
Periphery Online $4.99 50 72% 1.5k $7.5k (exactly $7,485) Aleksandr Nagaev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.