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Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Visual Novel?
Choose Your Own Adventure + Visual Novel
Of 1,093 developers who shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,473 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×30 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $320k, ×2732 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 1,473 games are announced against 641 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $719 (exactly $719) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.6k (exactly $3,596) |
| Top 25% | $26k (exactly $26,387) |
| Top 5% | $325k (exactly $325,133) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 1,093 |
| Released games | 3,532 |
| Announced | 1,473 |
| Effort | 2 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choose Your Own Adventure
- effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
- Systems
- Choose Your Own Adventure, Visual Novel; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, Dating Sim
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 93% positive over 294,110 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $720. 8 in 10 of the 730 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,473 games are announced against 641 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choose Your Own Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RhythmStrong odds
- + FMVFair
- + FlightFair
- + SportsFair
- + Word GameFair
- + MilitaryFair
- + Score AttackFair
- + IdlerFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Local MultiplayerFair
- + 3D FighterLong shot
- + NavalPoor odds
Comparable games
Dispatch 2025 · $157M 
The Walking Dead: The Telltale Definitive Series 2020 · $55M 
Magical Girl Witch Trials 2025 · $27M 
NEEDY STREAMER OVERLOAD 2022 · $26M 
The Walking Dead 2012 · $24M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Dispatch | $29.99 | 174,624 97% | 5.2M | $157M (exactly $157,109,213) | AdHoc Studio | |
| | The Walking Dead: The Telltale Definitive Series | older | $49.99 | 36,594 96% | 1.1M | $55M (exactly $54,880,022) | Skybound Games |
| | Magical Girl Witch Trials | $29.99 | 29,869 96% | 896k | $27M (exactly $26,873,139) | Acacia, Re,AER | |
| | NEEDY STREAMER OVERLOAD | older | $15.99 | 54,053 94% | 1.6M | $26M (exactly $25,929,224) | WSS playground, xemono |
| | The Walking Dead | older | $14.99 | 53,650 97% | 1.6M | $24M (exactly $24,126,405) | Telltale Games |
 | Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut | older | $17.99 | 31,885 96% | 957k | $17M (exactly $17,208,334) | Black Tabby Games |
 | The Wolf Among Us | older | $14.99 | 32,494 97% | 975k | $15M (exactly $14,612,552) | Telltale |
 | Doki Doki Literature Club Plus! | older | $14.99 | 30,148 97% | 904k | $14M (exactly $13,557,556) | Team Salvato |
 | Love Is All Around | older | $9.99 | 36,203 93% | 1.1M | $11M (exactly $10,850,039) | intiny |
 | Revenge on gold diggers | $6.99 | 46,610 80% | 1.4M | $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) | 前方工作室 | |
 | Date Everything! | $29.99 | 6,629 93% | 199k | $6.0M (exactly $5,964,111) | Sassy Chap Games | |
 | Five Hearts Under One Roof | $19.99 | 5,881 91% | 176k | $3.5M (exactly $3,526,836) | Storytaco | |
 | Magical Princess | $14.99 | 7,636 96% | 229k | $3.4M (exactly $3,433,909) | Neotro Inc., MAGI Inc. | |
 | Homicipher | $13.99 | 7,821 96% | 235k | $3.3M (exactly $3,282,474) | 八名木Games | |
 | Urban Myth Dissolution Center | $17.99 | 5,930 88% | 178k | $3.2M (exactly $3,200,421) | Hakababunko | |
 | School Days | $14.99 | 6,023 77% | 181k | $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543) | 白雨工作室 | |
 | Sovereign Tower | $19.99 | 3,087 93% | 93k | $1.9M (exactly $1,851,274) | WILD WITS GAMES |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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