Do I ship it?

GamesChoose Your Own AdventureChoose Your Own Adventure + Transhumanism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Transhumanist Choose Your Own Adventure game?

Choose Your Own Adventure + Transhumanism

Only 8 developers shipped a Transhumanist Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Songs of Rats, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.0k, ×15 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $22k, ×47 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 22 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 14.8 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 22 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choose Your Own Adventure + Transhumanism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Choose Your Own Adventure + Transhumanism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $2.9k (exactly $2,936)
Median $7.0k (exactly $7,036)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $22,478)
Top 5% $22k (exactly $22,485)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 25
Announced 22
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 600% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 28%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
Transhumanism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choose Your Own Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 446 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.0k, median $7.0k, 1 in 4 over $22k, 1 in 20 over $22k.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.0k. 22 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choose Your Own Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + FMVFair79 devs · median $54k · 74 announced
  3. + FlightFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  4. + SportsFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Word GameFair55 devs · median $1.4k · 65 announced
  6. + MilitaryFair23 devs · median $898 · 24 announced
  7. + Score AttackFair14 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  8. + IdlerFair41 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  9. + GamblingFair10 devs · median $494 · 14 announced
  10. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  11. + 3D FighterLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  12. + NavalPoor odds9 devs · median $14k · 16 announced

All 198 pairs on the Choose Your Own Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Songs of Rats $14.99 50 78% 1.5k $22k (exactly $22,485) Tesseract Games
春はあけぼの、我はバケモノ。 - Spring at Dawn, I Am a Monster. $9.99 75 64% 2.3k $22k (exactly $22,478) CHARON, STUDIO CHARON
The Queen of Phalli $9.99 39 87% 1.2k $12k (exactly $11,688) Labor of Love
A Wild Catgirl Appears! older $2.99 79 62% 2.4k $7.1k (exactly $7,086) NewWestGames
Project Looking Glass $4.99 47 100% 1.4k $7.0k (exactly $7,036) MORPH
Imago Season $9.50 19 89% 570 $5.4k (exactly $5,415) Lunar Finch
Sym.BIOS: Torn Asunder older $7.99 14 100% 420 $3.4k (exactly $3,356) Cassiopeia Developments
我说什么她们都答应(OKeverything) older $9.99 11 45% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) XIOF
Posthuman: Guardians vs PSION $6.99 14 42% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) Choice of Games
CYBER EMOJI TALE 2099 older $0.99 98 89% 2.9k $2.9k (exactly $2,911) MICROCHELIK5000
Outsider $12.99 5 100% 150 $1.9k (exactly $1,948) Galantrix
XVTM $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Mischief and Craft

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.