Do I ship it?

GamesChoose Your Own AdventureChoose Your Own Adventure + Tabletop

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tabletop Choose Your Own Adventure game?

Choose Your Own Adventure + Tabletop

Of 29 developers who shipped a Tabletop Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 54 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, ×4.0 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×1941 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 54 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 54 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choose Your Own Adventure + Tabletop
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $238 → $4.1k → $1.2k → $1.6k → $359 → $449 (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choose Your Own Adventure + Tabletop: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $4.5k (exactly $4,497)
Top 5% $231k (exactly $230,992)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 109
Announced 54
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Choose Your Own Adventure, Tabletop; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Choices Matter, Adventure, RPG
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, Lore-Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 26,321 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $480, 1 in 4 over $4.4k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 54 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choose Your Own Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + FMVFair79 devs · median $54k · 74 announced
  3. + FlightFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  4. + SportsFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Word GameFair55 devs · median $1.4k · 65 announced
  6. + MilitaryFair23 devs · median $898 · 24 announced
  7. + Score AttackFair14 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  8. + IdlerFair41 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  9. + GamblingFair10 devs · median $494 · 14 announced
  10. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  11. + 3D FighterLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  12. + NavalPoor odds9 devs · median $14k · 16 announced

All 198 pairs on the Choose Your Own Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sultan's Game $24.99 25,061 93% 752k $19M (exactly $18,788,232) Double Cross
Cultist Simulator older $19.99 10,496 82% 315k $6.3M (exactly $6,294,451) Weather Factory
The Life and Suffering of Sir Brante older $19.99 8,151 89% 245k $4.9M (exactly $4,888,155) Sever, Schisma Games
Hand of Fate older $19.99 8,009 89% 240k $4.8M (exactly $4,802,997) Defiant Development
THE GAME OF LIFE 2 older $12.49 3,702 78% 111k $1.4M (exactly $1,387,139) Marmalade Game Studio Ltd
Black Geyser: Couriers of Darkness older $29.99 924 74% 28k $831k (exactly $831,323) GrapeOcean Technologies
Foretales older $19.99 779 87% 23k $467k (exactly $467,166) Alkemi
Werewolf: The Apocalypse — Heart of the Forest older $14.99 805 83% 24k $362k (exactly $362,008) Different Tales
Sovereign Syndicate older $19.99 573 79% 17k $344k (exactly $343,628) Crimson Herring Studios
The Test: Final Revelation older $1.99 5,286 97% 159k $316k (exactly $315,574) Randumb Studios
Crown Gambit $17.99 428 94% 13k $231k (exactly $230,992) WILD WITS GAMES
Marisa of Liartop Mountain $14.99 286 84% 8.6k $129k (exactly $128,614) Alliance Arts, UnknownX
Veritas Tales: Witch of the Dark Castle $16.99 227 86% 6.8k $116k (exactly $115,702) ジギタリス出版
Worlds of Aria $14.99 220 90% 6.6k $99k (exactly $98,934) Ludogram
Draw Steel · EA $19.99 67 98% 2.0k $40k (exactly $40,180) Verisim, MCDM
Rascal's Escape $29.99 6 66% 180 $5.4k (exactly $5,398) the Good Evil GmbH
Broke Signal Badlands: A World of Desert Adventure $14.99 10 90% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Forward Instinct
Haulin' Oats $9.99 7 100% 210 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) Gramps Games
Questboard $5.99 9 88% 270 $1.6k (exactly $1,617) Binary Cabin

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.