Do I ship it?

GamesChoose Your Own AdventureChoose Your Own Adventure + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Choose Your Own Adventure game?

Choose Your Own Adventure + Supernatural

Of 110 developers who shipped a Supernatural Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 181 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $430k, ×906 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 181 games are announced against 67 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 181 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choose Your Own Adventure + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 110
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.4k → $2.1k → $1.5k → $2.7k → $4.3k → $1.1k → $748 (still earning) → $360 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choose Your Own Adventure + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 110
Bottom 30% $358 (exactly $358)
Median $839 (exactly $839)
Top 25% $6.1k (exactly $6,115)
Top 5% $430k (exactly $430,369)
Developers, 2 yr 110
Released games 285
Announced 181
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choose Your Own Adventure; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Multiple Endings, Visual Novel, Choices Matter
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 28,025 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $840, 1 in 4 over $6.1k, 1 in 20 over $430k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 67 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 181 games are announced against 67 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choose Your Own Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + FMVFair79 devs · median $54k · 74 announced
  3. + FlightFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  4. + SportsFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Word GameFair55 devs · median $1.4k · 65 announced
  6. + MilitaryFair23 devs · median $898 · 24 announced
  7. + Score AttackFair14 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  8. + IdlerFair41 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  9. + GamblingFair10 devs · median $494 · 14 announced
  10. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  11. + 3D FighterLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  12. + NavalPoor odds9 devs · median $14k · 16 announced

All 198 pairs on the Choose Your Own Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Life is Strange: True Colors older $59.99 12,360 88% 371k $22M (exactly $22,244,292) Deck Nine
Life is Strange: Double Exposure $49.99 7,842 68% 235k $12M (exactly $11,760,647) Deck Nine Games
Life is Strange: Reunion $39.99 4,535 89% 136k $5.4M (exactly $5,440,640) Deck Nine Games
The Casting of Frank Stone™ older $29.99 5,580 62% 167k $5.0M (exactly $5,020,326) Supermassive Games
Scarlet Hollow · EA older $29.99 4,833 97% 145k $4.3M (exactly $4,348,250) Black Tabby Games
PARANORMASIGHT: The Seven Mysteries of Honjo older $19.99 6,123 95% 184k $3.7M (exactly $3,671,963) Square Enix
Urban Myth Dissolution Center $17.99 5,930 88% 178k $3.2M (exactly $3,200,421) Hakababunko
PARANORMASIGHT: The Mermaid's Curse $24.99 2,169 95% 65k $1.6M (exactly $1,626,099) Square Enix
Amanda the Adventurer older $8.99 5,931 94% 178k $1.6M (exactly $1,599,591) MANGLEDmaw Games
Love Curse: Find Your Soulmate $14.00 3,275 95% 98k $1.4M (exactly $1,375,500) Xso
Schrödinger's Call $17.99 1,124 94% 34k $607k (exactly $606,623) Acrobatic Chirimenjako
Amanda the Adventurer 2 $9.99 1,436 83% 43k $430k (exactly $430,369) MANGLEDmaw Games
消失的航班,还有她她她!Lost in the secret! $19.99 602 89% 18k $361k (exactly $361,019) Humongous Pictures
Mojika - Truth Rears Its Ugly Head $24.99 413 77% 12k $310k (exactly $309,626) NITRO ORIGIN
Amanda the Adventurer 3 $9.99 699 86% 21k $209k (exactly $209,490) MANGLEDmaw Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.