Do I ship it?

GamesChoose Your Own AdventureChoose Your Own Adventure + Superhero

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Superhero Choose Your Own Adventure game?

Choose Your Own Adventure + Superhero

Only 10 developers shipped a Superhero Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Dispatch, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.6k, ×6.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $150M, ×104879 the market median. Revenue is up 160% on the market; 17 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 160% on the market, 17 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choose Your Own Adventure + Superhero
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.6k → $4.1k → $6.6k → $4.5k → $7.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choose Your Own Adventure + Superhero: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $4.5k (exactly $4,492)
Median $9.6k (exactly $9,595)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,558)
Top 5% $157M (exactly $157,109,213)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 52
Announced 17
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 160% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
Superhero
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Choose Your Own Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 97% positive over 175,214 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.5k, median $9.6k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $150M.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.5k. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choose Your Own Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + FMVFair79 devs · median $54k · 74 announced
  3. + FlightFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  4. + SportsFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Word GameFair55 devs · median $1.4k · 65 announced
  6. + MilitaryFair23 devs · median $898 · 24 announced
  7. + Score AttackFair14 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  8. + IdlerFair41 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  9. + GamblingFair10 devs · median $494 · 14 announced
  10. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  11. + 3D FighterLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  12. + NavalPoor odds9 devs · median $14k · 16 announced

All 198 pairs on the Choose Your Own Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dispatch $29.99 174,624 97% 5.2M $157M (exactly $157,109,213) AdHoc Studio
Batman - The Telltale Series older $14.99 15,060 87% 452k $6.8M (exactly $6,772,482) Telltale
Batman: The Enemy Within - The Telltale Series older $14.99 8,877 92% 266k $4.0M (exactly $3,991,987) Telltale
Invincible Presents: Atom Eve older $9.99 550 96% 17k $165k (exactly $164,835) Terrible Posture Games
Fallen Hero: Retribution older $11.99 415 97% 12k $149k (exactly $149,276) Hosted Games
Fallen Hero: Rebirth older $6.99 459 96% 14k $96k (exactly $96,252) Hosted Games
Glowing Stones : Heroes' Awakening · EA older $11.99 259 91% 7.8k $93k (exactly $93,162) MoonLightDevCorp
Villain's Legacy $9.99 294 82% 8.8k $88k (exactly $88,112) Mad scientist lab
Mister Versatile: A Gay Superhero Visual Novel older $19.99 123 89% 3.7k $74k (exactly $73,763) Y Press Games, Studio Kosen
Heroes Rise: The Prodigy older $4.99 381 79% 11k $57k (exactly $57,036) Choice of Games
Hank: Drowning On Dry Land $2.99 140 95% 4.2k $13k (exactly $12,558) My Next Games
The Magical girl Childhood friend lives Next Door $9.99 39 82% 1.2k $12k (exactly $11,688) Waving.Inc
Giggle Night: Trixie's Trial · EA $19.99 16 81% 480 $9.6k (exactly $9,595) Anaximanes Entertainment
Heroes of Tomorrow: Hidden Potential $7.99 32 75% 960 $7.7k (exactly $7,670) Choice of Games
Villain's Legacy 2 · EA $9.99 20 50% 600 $6.0k (exactly $5,994) Mad scientist lab
Phantom Thief Angels: Twin Angel - Labyrinth of Time and World - Re:light $17.50 10 100% 300 $5.3k (exactly $5,250) ALTERCIWS
The Last Scion $5.99 25 84% 750 $4.5k (exactly $4,492) Choice of Games
Dawn of Heroes $7.99 14 64% 420 $3.4k (exactly $3,356) Hosted Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.