Do I ship it?

GamesChoose Your Own AdventureChoose Your Own Adventure + Steampunk

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Steampunk Choose Your Own Adventure game?

Choose Your Own Adventure + Steampunk

Only 12 developers shipped a Steampunk Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Erannorth Renaissance, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×178 the market median. Revenue is up 1350% on the market; 25 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 1350% on the market, 25 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choose Your Own Adventure + Steampunk
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $344k → $22k → $3.0k → $12k → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choose Your Own Adventure + Steampunk: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,994)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $21,333)
Top 5% $112k (exactly $111,544)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 44
Announced 25
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1350% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
Steampunk
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Choose Your Own Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 414 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choose Your Own Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + FMVFair79 devs · median $54k · 74 announced
  3. + FlightFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  4. + SportsFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Word GameFair55 devs · median $1.4k · 65 announced
  6. + MilitaryFair23 devs · median $898 · 24 announced
  7. + Score AttackFair14 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  8. + IdlerFair41 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  9. + GamblingFair10 devs · median $494 · 14 announced
  10. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  11. + 3D FighterLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  12. + NavalPoor odds9 devs · median $14k · 16 announced

All 198 pairs on the Choose Your Own Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Great Ace Attorney Chronicles older $39.99 5,113 93% 153k $6.1M (exactly $6,134,066) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
80 Days older $12.99 1,174 91% 35k $458k (exactly $457,508) inkle Ltd, Cape Guy Ltd
Steam Prison older $34.99 388 81% 12k $407k (exactly $407,284) HuneX
Sovereign Syndicate older $19.99 573 79% 17k $344k (exactly $343,628) Crimson Herring Studios
Haven Moon older $11.99 646 77% 19k $232k (exactly $232,366) Francois Roussel
Erannorth Renaissance $19.99 186 81% 5.6k $112k (exactly $111,544) Spyridon Thalassinos
A Study in Steampunk: Choice by Gaslight older $6.99 172 95% 5.2k $36k (exactly $36,068) Hosted Games
Sona-Nyl of the Violet Shadows Refrain older $34.99 34 100% 1.0k $36k (exactly $35,690) Liar-soft
Cave Digger older $14.90 63 82% 1.9k $28k (exactly $28,161) VRKiwi
Steam Prison -Beyond the Steam- $34.99 22 50% 660 $23k (exactly $23,093) HuneX
Lust Poker Club $7.99 89 78% 2.7k $21k (exactly $21,333) Cutie Booty
Void Sails $9.99 49 69% 1.5k $15k (exactly $14,685) Ticking Clock Games
MAELSTROM LEGACY: The Tesla Mystery $10.99 36 69% 1.1k $12k (exactly $11,869) Wistfulware
Ostera : The curse of... · EA $4.99 20 85% 600 $3.0k (exactly $2,994) Profits Troll Studio
Heavens' Revolution: A Lion Among the Cypress $6.99 7 28% 210 $1.5k (exactly $1,468) Choice of Games
The Wickie : Journey of a Lighthouse Keeper $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Crispian Robson
Circus Saboteur $14.99 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) No Sequels Cooperative
Under the Gray Sky $1.00 2 100% 60 $60 (exactly $60) mokosoft

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.