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Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Sandbox?
Sandbox + Choose Your Own Adventure
Of 138 developers who shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 312 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.2k, ×5.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×612 the market median. Revenue is up 85% on the market; 312 games are announced against 74 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $449 (exactly $449) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.2k (exactly $3,150) |
| Top 25% | $21k (exactly $20,686) |
| Top 5% | $384k (exactly $384,266) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 138 |
| Released games | 426 |
| Announced | 312 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 85% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Sandbox
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Choose Your Own Adventure
- effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox, Choose Your Own Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Exploration, Life Sim
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Relaxing
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 44,582 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 78 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 312 games are announced against 74 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
DayZ 2018 · $582M 
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal 2023 · $114M 
People Playground 2019 · $89M 
Anno 1800 2019 · $54M 
Disney Dreamlight Valley 2023 · $26M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | DayZ | older | $49.99 | 387,850 78% | 12M | $582M (exactly $581,658,645) | Bohemia Interactive |
| | 鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal | older | $19.99 | 190,184 56% | 5.7M | $114M (exactly $114,053,345) | 鬼谷工作室 |
| | People Playground | older | $9.99 | 298,158 98% | 8.9M | $89M (exactly $89,357,953) | mestiez |
| | Anno 1800 | older | $59.99 | 29,854 81% | 896k | $54M (exactly $53,728,244) | Ubisoft Mainz |
| | Disney Dreamlight Valley | older | $39.99 | 22,027 92% | 661k | $26M (exactly $26,425,792) | Gameloft |
 | Anno 117: Pax Romana | $59.99 | 12,150 69% | 365k | $22M (exactly $21,866,355) | Ubisoft Mainz | |
 | Hero's Adventure: Road to Passion | older | $17.99 | 22,287 84% | 669k | $12M (exactly $12,028,294) | 半瓶醋工作室（Half Amateur Studio） |
 | House Party | older | $24.99 | 13,968 85% | 419k | $10M (exactly $10,471,810) | Eek! Games, LLC |
 | Avorion | older | $24.99 | 13,001 90% | 390k | $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) | Boxelware |
 | Mon Bazou | $15.99 | 19,922 97% | 598k | $9.6M (exactly $9,556,583) | Santa Goat | |
 | Tavern Keeper 🍻 | · EA | $29.99 | 4,563 94% | 137k | $4.1M (exactly $4,105,331) | Greenheart Games 💚 |
 | Car Service Together | · EA | $19.99 | 3,589 79% | 108k | $2.2M (exactly $2,152,323) | V12 Studio |
 | To Pixelia | $14.99 | 1,194 73% | 36k | $537k (exactly $536,942) | Pixeduo Studios | |
 | Celestial Empire | · EA | $19.99 | 709 89% | 21k | $425k (exactly $425,187) | President Studio |
 | Caravanners | · EA | $17.99 | 712 35% | 21k | $384k (exactly $384,266) | Akif Akdemir |
 | Kind Words 2 (lofi city pop) | $19.99 | 632 92% | 19k | $379k (exactly $379,010) | Popcannibal | |
 | Medieval Blacksmith | $19.99 | 591 79% | 18k | $354k (exactly $354,423) | OGO Play | |
 | Rise of Piracy | · EA | $15.99 | 520 77% | 16k | $249k (exactly $249,444) | IrishJohnGames |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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