Do I ship it?

GamesChoose Your Own AdventureChoose Your Own Adventure + Romance

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Romance Choose Your Own Adventure game?

Choose Your Own Adventure + Romance

Of 564 developers who shipped a Romance Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 724 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.3k, ×62 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×2821 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 724 games are announced against 324 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 61.6 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 724 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choose Your Own Adventure + Romance
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 564
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $18k → $18k → $11k → $12k → $10k → $7.9k → $5.7k (still earning) → $3.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choose Your Own Adventure + Romance: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 564
Bottom 30% $1.7k (exactly $1,704)
Median $7.3k (exactly $7,335)
Top 25% $36k (exactly $36,056)
Top 5% $336k (exactly $335,731)
Developers, 2 yr 564
Released games 1,847
Announced 724
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
Romance
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Choose Your Own Adventure; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Dating Sim, Choices Matter
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Emotional, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 255,152 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $7.3k, 1 in 4 over $36k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 7 in 10 of the 387 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 724 games are announced against 324 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choose Your Own Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + FMVFair79 devs · median $54k · 74 announced
  3. + FlightFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  4. + SportsFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Word GameFair55 devs · median $1.4k · 65 announced
  6. + MilitaryFair23 devs · median $898 · 24 announced
  7. + Score AttackFair14 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  8. + IdlerFair41 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  9. + GamblingFair10 devs · median $494 · 14 announced
  10. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  11. + 3D FighterLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  12. + NavalPoor odds9 devs · median $14k · 16 announced

All 198 pairs on the Choose Your Own Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dispatch $29.99 174,624 97% 5.2M $157M (exactly $157,109,213) AdHoc Studio
Life is Strange: True Colors older $59.99 12,360 88% 371k $22M (exactly $22,244,292) Deck Nine
Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut older $17.99 31,885 96% 957k $17M (exactly $17,208,334) Black Tabby Games
Doki Doki Literature Club Plus! older $14.99 30,148 97% 904k $14M (exactly $13,557,556) Team Salvato
Life is Strange: Double Exposure $49.99 7,842 68% 235k $12M (exactly $11,760,647) Deck Nine Games
Love Is All Around older $9.99 36,203 93% 1.1M $11M (exactly $10,850,039) intiny
House Party older $24.99 13,968 85% 419k $10M (exactly $10,471,810) Eek! Games, LLC
Revenge on gold diggers $6.99 46,610 80% 1.4M $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) 前方工作室
FreshWomen - Season 1 older $13.99 17,428 95% 523k $7.3M (exactly $7,314,532) Pantsu Interactive
Date Everything! $29.99 6,629 93% 199k $6.0M (exactly $5,964,111) Sassy Chap Games
Life is Strange: Reunion $39.99 4,535 89% 136k $5.4M (exactly $5,440,640) Deck Nine Games
Five Hearts Under One Roof $19.99 5,881 91% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,526,836) Storytaco
Sovereign Tower $19.99 3,087 93% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,851,274) WILD WITS GAMES
Summer Pockets REFLECTION BLUE $49.99 1,231 91% 37k $1.8M (exactly $1,846,131) VISUAL ARTS/Key
The Three Kingdoms: Rebirth $19.99 2,564 91% 77k $1.5M (exactly $1,537,631) 玛奇阿朵互娱科技, 山与海工作室
Five Hearts Under One Roof season2 $22.99 2,149 96% 64k $1.5M (exactly $1,482,165) Storytaco

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.