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Should I ship a PvP Choose Your Own Adventure game?
PvP + Choose Your Own Adventure
Of 29 developers who shipped a PvP Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 120 more are announced, ×8.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $860, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 120 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.6 per shipper, while revenue is down 60% on the market.
| Bottom 30% | $148 (exactly $148) |
|---|---|
| Median | $860 (exactly $860) |
| Top 25% | $6.6k (exactly $6,584) |
| Top 5% | $379k (exactly $379,010) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 29 |
| Released games | 109 |
| Announced | 120 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 27%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- PvP
- effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
- Choose Your Own Adventure
- effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP, Choose Your Own Adventure; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Choices Matter, Open World, PvE
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 71% positive over 16,765 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 120 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
DayZ 2018 · $582M 
The Elder Scrolls® Online 2017 · $81M 
The Bazaar 2025 · $9.0M 
THE GAME OF LIFE 2 2020 · $1.4M 
Apex Point 2023 · EA · $1.0M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | DayZ | older | $49.99 | 387,850 78% | 12M | $582M (exactly $581,658,645) | Bohemia Interactive |
| | The Elder Scrolls® Online | older | $19.99 | 134,421 82% | 4.0M | $81M (exactly $80,612,274) | ZeniMax Online Studios |
| | The Bazaar | $19.99 | 14,931 70% | 448k | $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) | Tempo | |
| | THE GAME OF LIFE 2 | older | $12.49 | 3,702 78% | 111k | $1.4M (exactly $1,387,139) | Marmalade Game Studio Ltd |
| | Apex Point | · EA older | $18.99 | 1,832 86% | 55k | $1.0M (exactly $1,043,690) | Apex Studio |
 | Kind Words 2 (lofi city pop) | $19.99 | 632 92% | 19k | $379k (exactly $379,010) | Popcannibal | |
 | OverDrift Festival | older | $9.99 | 1,103 79% | 33k | $331k (exactly $330,569) | OverDrift Crew |
 | Rise of Piracy | · EA | $15.99 | 520 77% | 16k | $249k (exactly $249,444) | IrishJohnGames |
 | Class of '09: Puzzle Showdown | $19.99 | 333 57% | 10k | $200k (exactly $199,700) | SBN3 | |
 | Hand Simulator: Rendezvous | older | $2.99 | 1,654 87% | 50k | $148k (exactly $148,364) | Alice Pie |
 | Stash: A Card Looter | $9.99 | 186 79% | 5.6k | $56k (exactly $55,744) | WheeGaming | |
 | Draw Steel | · EA | $19.99 | 67 98% | 2.0k | $40k (exactly $40,180) | Verisim, MCDM |
 | Gravebind | · EA | $14.99 | 15 93% | 450 | $6.7k (exactly $6,746) | Seamless Network Systems, LLC |
 | PENTALOOP -ペンタループ- | $3.99 | 55 72% | 1.7k | $6.6k (exactly $6,584) | イバラユーギ×ひろゆ～プロジェクト | |
 | Azmar Quest - Text Based RPG | $9.99 | 15 100% | 450 | $4.5k (exactly $4,496) | Sevan Soukiassian | |
 | Idyllic cats: Japan | $9.99 | 11 100% | 330 | $3.3k (exactly $3,297) | GameRED indie |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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