Do I ship it?

GamesChoose Your Own AdventureChoose Your Own Adventure + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror Choose Your Own Adventure game?

Choose Your Own Adventure + Psychological Horror

Of 306 developers who shipped a Psychological-Horror Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 469 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×3.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $530; 1 in 20 cleared $320k, ×677 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 469 games are announced against 191 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 469 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choose Your Own Adventure + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 306
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.2k → $8.6k → $4.5k → $2.2k → $7.2k → $2.9k → $896 (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choose Your Own Adventure + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 306
Bottom 30% $525 (exactly $525)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,704)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,086)
Top 5% $322k (exactly $321,536)
Developers, 2 yr 306
Released games 806
Announced 469
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Choose Your Own Adventure; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Visual Novel, Multiple Endings
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 92,335 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $530, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $320k.

3 in 10 developers made under $530. 7 in 10 of the 163 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 469 games are announced against 191 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choose Your Own Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + FMVFair79 devs · median $54k · 74 announced
  3. + FlightFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  4. + SportsFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Word GameFair55 devs · median $1.4k · 65 announced
  6. + MilitaryFair23 devs · median $898 · 24 announced
  7. + Score AttackFair14 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  8. + IdlerFair41 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  9. + GamblingFair10 devs · median $494 · 14 announced
  10. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  11. + 3D FighterLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  12. + NavalPoor odds9 devs · median $14k · 16 announced

All 198 pairs on the Choose Your Own Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
People Playground older $9.99 298,158 98% 8.9M $89M (exactly $89,357,953) mestiez
Magical Girl Witch Trials $29.99 29,869 96% 896k $27M (exactly $26,873,139) Acacia, Re,AER
NEEDY STREAMER OVERLOAD older $15.99 54,053 94% 1.6M $26M (exactly $25,929,224) WSS playground, xemono
Sultan's Game $24.99 25,061 93% 752k $19M (exactly $18,788,232) Double Cross
Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut older $17.99 31,885 96% 957k $17M (exactly $17,208,334) Black Tabby Games
Life is Strange: Before the Storm older $16.99 33,504 93% 1.0M $17M (exactly $17,076,989) Deck Nine, Feral Interactive (Mac), Fer… (Deck Nine, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Doki Doki Literature Club Plus! older $14.99 30,148 97% 904k $14M (exactly $13,557,556) Team Salvato
WITCH ON THE HOLY NIGHT older $39.99 7,231 98% 217k $8.7M (exactly $8,675,031) TYPE-MOON, Lasengle Inc., Hunex
Cultist Simulator older $19.99 10,496 82% 315k $6.3M (exactly $6,294,451) Weather Factory
The Casting of Frank Stone™ older $29.99 5,580 62% 167k $5.0M (exactly $5,020,326) Supermassive Games
Urban Myth Dissolution Center $17.99 5,930 88% 178k $3.2M (exactly $3,200,421) Hakababunko
Directive 8020 $49.99 1,337 63% 40k $2.0M (exactly $2,005,099) Supermassive Games
Cabernet $19.99 2,025 94% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,214,392) Party for Introverts
The NOexistenceN of you AND me $1.99 20,139 93% 604k $1.2M (exactly $1,202,298) 0x0Real Studio
The Life and Suffering of Prince Jerian $24.99 1,356 74% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,016,593) Schisma Games
Class of '09: The Flip Side $9.99 3,356 57% 101k $1.0M (exactly $1,005,793) SBN3
AI2U: With You 'Til The End $14.99 2,073 87% 62k $932k (exactly $932,228) AlterStaff Inc.
YKMET: Strade $14.99 1,189 98% 36k $535k (exactly $534,693) Gatobob

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.