Do I ship it?

GamesChoose Your Own AdventureChoose Your Own Adventure + Pirates

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Pirate Choose Your Own Adventure game?

Choose Your Own Adventure + Pirates

Only 18 developers shipped a Pirate Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rise of Piracy, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $240k, ×397 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 27 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 27 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choose Your Own Adventure + Pirates
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.9k → $3.6k → $1.4k → $0 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choose Your Own Adventure + Pirates: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $718 (exactly $718)
Top 25% $6.0k (exactly $5,998)
Top 5% $249k (exactly $249,444)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 58
Announced 27
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
Pirates
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Choose Your Own Adventure; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 1,072 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $720, 1 in 4 over $5.9k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choose Your Own Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + FMVFair79 devs · median $54k · 74 announced
  3. + FlightFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  4. + SportsFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Word GameFair55 devs · median $1.4k · 65 announced
  6. + MilitaryFair23 devs · median $898 · 24 announced
  7. + Score AttackFair14 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  8. + IdlerFair41 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  9. + GamblingFair10 devs · median $494 · 14 announced
  10. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  11. + 3D FighterLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  12. + NavalPoor odds9 devs · median $14k · 16 announced

All 198 pairs on the Choose Your Own Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Pixel Piracy older $14.99 5,713 65% 171k $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) Vitali Kirpu
Sid Meier's Pirates! older $9.99 6,198 94% 186k $1.9M (exactly $1,857,541) Firaxis Games
Abandon Ship older $24.99 1,151 71% 35k $863k (exactly $862,905) Fireblade Software
Windward older $9.99 2,668 79% 80k $800k (exactly $799,600) Tasharen Entertainment Inc.
Blood and Gold: Caribbean! older $19.99 1,188 59% 36k $712k (exactly $712,444) Snowbird Games
Corsairs Legacy - Pirate Action RPG & Sea Battles · EA older $19.99 1,094 74% 33k $656k (exactly $656,072) Mauris, Tech-5 UG
Nantucket older $17.99 782 78% 23k $422k (exactly $422,045) Picaresque Games
Rise of Piracy · EA $15.99 520 77% 16k $249k (exactly $249,444) IrishJohnGames
The Pirate's Fate older $19.99 263 87% 7.9k $158k (exactly $157,721) T.F. Wright, Volkenfox
Pirates VR: Jolly Roger $19.99 212 76% 6.4k $127k (exactly $127,136) Split Light Studio
Erannorth Renaissance $19.99 186 81% 5.6k $112k (exactly $111,544) Spyridon Thalassinos
Revenge of Black Bone $14.99 112 64% 3.4k $50k (exactly $50,366) Entropy Digital Entertainment
Seven Seas: Adventures · EA $24.99 8 25% 240 $6.0k (exactly $5,998) Concept Games
Tales From The Under-Realm: Lilith $14.99 11 100% 330 $4.9k (exactly $4,947) Winter Wolves
To Grant A Wish $15.00 8 100% 240 $3.6k (exactly $3,600) Wizard Raz Studios
Samurai's Odyssey · EA $7.99 6 66% 180 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) CODEUM GAMES, 11Gen
Scarlet Sails $3.99 6 33% 180 $718 (exactly $718) Hosted Games
Exploration $6.99 3 66% 90 $629 (exactly $629) Software 2000

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.