Do I ship it?

GamesOpen World Survival CraftOpen World Survival Craft + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + Choose Your Own Adventure

Only 5 developers shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Colonize, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 9 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $4.9k against a market of $1.3k. 16 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 3.7 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 16 announced, ×5.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $4.0k (exactly $4,047)
Median $4.9k (exactly $4,947)
Top 25% $46k (exactly $45,577)
Top 5% $58k (exactly $57,542)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 33
Announced 16
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft, Choose Your Own Adventure
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $23.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 66% positive over 2,958 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.1k, median $4.9k, 1 in 4 over $45k, 1 in 20 over $57k.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.1k. 16 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $183k · 37 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds8 devs · median $183k · 27 announced
  6. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  7. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $154k · 37 announced
  8. + ShooterPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds22 devs · median $125k · 56 announced
  10. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 60 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Spirit of the Island older $14.99 1,191 69% 36k $536k (exactly $535,593) 1M Bits Horde
Fabled Lands older $18.99 523 79% 16k $298k (exactly $297,953) Prime Games
Korea Dynasty (조선메타실록) · EA older $23.99 267 72% 8.0k $192k (exactly $192,160) Happy Daram Inc.
Far Lands older $24.99 154 62% 4.6k $115k (exactly $115,454) Scalpel Softworks
Zero-based World-从零开始 · EA older $18.99 149 68% 4.5k $85k (exactly $84,885) zerogame
Colonize $9.99 192 39% 5.8k $58k (exactly $57,542) Rembrosoft
ASTROBOTANICA · EA $19.99 76 59% 2.3k $46k (exactly $45,577) Space Goblin Studio
Tales of Morrow older $14.99 96 44% 2.9k $43k (exactly $43,171) GameMechanic
Arctic Anxiety · EA older $2.99 285 55% 8.6k $26k (exactly $25,565) Arctic Studio
Little Hats · EA older $19.99 25 88% 750 $15k (exactly $14,992) Venekamp Studios
Ancient the Dimensions · EA $14.99 11 9% 330 $4.9k (exactly $4,947) HEADSTONE STUDIO
Kalahari’s End · EA $14.99 9 55% 270 $4.0k (exactly $4,047) Owlfig Games
Wreck Poly Survival $0.99 1 0% 30 $30 (exactly $30) FGS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.