Do I ship it?

GamesMystery DungeonMystery Dungeon + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Mystery Dungeon?

Mystery Dungeon + Choose Your Own Adventure

Of 27 developers who shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Mystery Dungeon in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 19 developers shipped in the last year and 40 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 40 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mystery Dungeon + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $180 → $2.5k → $898 → $120 → $1.6k → $1.9k → $359 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Mystery Dungeon + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $358 (exactly $358)
Top 25% $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 5% $58k (exactly $58,461)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 77
Announced 40
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 110% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Mystery Dungeon, Choose Your Own Adventure; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, RPG
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 920 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $360, 1 in 4 over $1.9k, 1 in 20 over $58k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Mystery Dungeon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  2. + TacticalStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Auto BattlerFair17 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  4. + RomanceFair12 devs · median $5.8k · 10 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + Tactical RPGFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair34 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  8. + SimulationFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  9. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.0k · 18 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  11. + HistoricalFair7 devs · median $719 · 10 announced
  12. + PhysicsFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced

All 116 pairs on the Mystery Dungeon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Reventure older $12.34 8,451 95% 254k $3.1M (exactly $3,128,560) Pixelatto
Guidus Zero $14.99 609 75% 18k $274k (exactly $273,867) izzle
Dynamic Dungeons Editor older $29.99 158 60% 4.7k $142k (exactly $142,153) Dynamic Dungeons
Baldo: The Guardian Owls older $19.99 185 65% 5.6k $111k (exactly $110,944) Naps Team
Dracula: Love Kills older $9.99 298 80% 8.9k $89k (exactly $89,311) Waterlily Games
PuPu's Adventure Park $14.99 130 64% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,461) 西梅树工作室
Slave Princess Finne, why did she sell out her own kingdom? older $17.99 82 87% 2.5k $44k (exactly $44,255) Circle Fairy Flower
Choose Wisely older $9.99 117 72% 3.5k $35k (exactly $35,065) ID Card
Rescue Operation older $3.99 253 87% 7.6k $30k (exactly $30,284) Laush Dmitriy Sergeevich
ACCIDENTALLY $12.99 30 60% 900 $12k (exactly $11,691) M&K WORKS
Damsels in Distress $8.99 36 83% 1.1k $9.7k (exactly $9,709) Anime Mania
Digging the Forgotten Cave $4.99 54 75% 1.6k $8.1k (exactly $8,084) Cavernauts
When We Arrive $9.99 22 81% 660 $6.6k (exactly $6,593) Two Pixels UG
Dead Silence - Echoes of the Damned $4.99 13 38% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Persian Dare
Questboard $5.99 9 88% 270 $1.6k (exactly $1,617) Binary Cabin
DEEPLY · EA $2.99 14 35% 420 $1.3k (exactly $1,256) TWEN
虚妄之言 Hollow Life And INsincere Words $8.99 3 66% 90 $809 (exactly $809) 暴躁猫工作室

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.