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Should I ship a Mystery Choose Your Own Adventure game?
Choose Your Own Adventure + Mystery
Of 450 developers who shipped a Mystery Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 780 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×4.1 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×652 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 780 games are announced against 265 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $449 (exactly $449) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.9k (exactly $1,946) |
| Top 25% | $14k (exactly $14,260) |
| Top 5% | $310k (exactly $309,626) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 450 |
| Released games | 1,168 |
| Announced | 780 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choose Your Own Adventure
- effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
- Mystery
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Choose Your Own Adventure; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Visual Novel, Multiple Endings
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 105,033 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 226 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 780 games are announced against 265 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choose Your Own Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RhythmStrong odds
- + FMVFair
- + FlightFair
- + SportsFair
- + Word GameFair
- + MilitaryFair
- + Score AttackFair
- + IdlerFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Local MultiplayerFair
- + 3D FighterLong shot
- + NavalPoor odds
Comparable games
Magical Girl Witch Trials 2025 · $27M 
Life is Strange: True Colors 2021 · $22M 
Life is Strange: Before the Storm 2017 · $17M 
The Wolf Among Us 2013 · $15M 
Life is Strange: Double Exposure 2024 · $12M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Magical Girl Witch Trials | $29.99 | 29,869 96% | 896k | $27M (exactly $26,873,139) | Acacia, Re,AER | |
| | Life is Strange: True Colors | older | $59.99 | 12,360 88% | 371k | $22M (exactly $22,244,292) | Deck Nine |
| | Life is Strange: Before the Storm | older | $16.99 | 33,504 93% | 1.0M | $17M (exactly $17,076,989) | Deck Nine, Feral Interactive (Mac), Fer… (Deck Nine, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | The Wolf Among Us | older | $14.99 | 32,494 97% | 975k | $15M (exactly $14,612,552) | Telltale |
| | Life is Strange: Double Exposure | $49.99 | 7,842 68% | 235k | $12M (exactly $11,760,647) | Deck Nine Games | |
 | Revenge on gold diggers | $6.99 | 46,610 80% | 1.4M | $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) | 前方工作室 | |
 | Until Dawn™ | $59.99 | 3,564 82% | 107k | $6.4M (exactly $6,414,131) | Ballistic Moon | |
 | The Great Ace Attorney Chronicles | older | $39.99 | 5,113 93% | 153k | $6.1M (exactly $6,134,066) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
 | Pentiment | older | $19.99 | 9,231 95% | 277k | $5.5M (exactly $5,535,831) | Obsidian Entertainment |
 | Life is Strange: Reunion | $39.99 | 4,535 89% | 136k | $5.4M (exactly $5,440,640) | Deck Nine Games | |
 | Urban Myth Dissolution Center | $17.99 | 5,930 88% | 178k | $3.2M (exactly $3,200,421) | Hakababunko | |
 | PARANORMASIGHT: The Mermaid's Curse | $24.99 | 2,169 95% | 65k | $1.6M (exactly $1,626,099) | Square Enix | |
 | Kindergarten 3 | $19.99 | 1,774 94% | 53k | $1.1M (exactly $1,063,868) | Con Man Games, Sean Young | |
 | No Sleep For Kaname Date - From AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES | $39.99 | 835 79% | 25k | $1.0M (exactly $1,001,750) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. | |
 | Rue Valley | $14.99 | 1,905 69% | 57k | $857k (exactly $856,678) | Emotion Spark Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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