Do I ship it?

GamesChoose Your Own AdventureChoose Your Own Adventure + Martial Arts

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Martial-Arts Choose Your Own Adventure game?

Choose Your Own Adventure + Martial Arts

Only 13 developers shipped a Martial-Arts Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Something To Write About: Unbroken: Book One, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $84k, ×134 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 20 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 20 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choose Your Own Adventure + Martial Arts
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $382k → $6.1k → $28k → $1.4k
Outcomes for Choose Your Own Adventure + Martial Arts: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $28,489)
Top 5% $84k (exactly $84,360)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 35
Announced 20
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
Martial Arts
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Choose Your Own Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 819 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $28k, 1 in 20 over $84k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choose Your Own Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + FMVFair79 devs · median $54k · 74 announced
  3. + FlightFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  4. + SportsFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Word GameFair55 devs · median $1.4k · 65 announced
  6. + MilitaryFair23 devs · median $898 · 24 announced
  7. + Score AttackFair14 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  8. + IdlerFair41 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  9. + GamblingFair10 devs · median $494 · 14 announced
  10. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  11. + 3D FighterLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  12. + NavalPoor odds9 devs · median $14k · 16 announced

All 198 pairs on the Choose Your Own Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hero's Adventure: Road to Passion older $17.99 22,287 84% 669k $12M (exactly $12,028,294) 半瓶醋工作室(Half Amateur Studio)
Floating Life2 older $19.99 637 50% 19k $382k (exactly $382,009) 心流工作室(Heart Stream Studio)
Earthling's Undertaking older $10.99 930 64% 28k $307k (exactly $306,621) Current Games
Majikoi! Love Me Seriously! older $34.99 212 95% 6.4k $223k (exactly $222,536) Minato Soft
Something To Write About: Unbroken: Book One $13.99 201 90% 6.0k $84k (exactly $84,360) SeanchaiStudios
Taimanin Asagi older $14.99 161 84% 4.8k $72k (exactly $72,402) Lilith
Elder Ring · EA $9.99 230 40% 6.9k $69k (exactly $68,931) Funny as Hell
Morningstar: Book of the Fallen $14.99 67 94% 2.0k $30k (exactly $30,130) Droid Productions
Primal Hearts $24.99 38 89% 1.1k $28k (exactly $28,489) Marmalade
Lilith Rising - Season 2 $7.99 116 66% 3.5k $28k (exactly $27,805) Jubei Games
Wings of Empire · EA $14.99 49 87% 1.5k $22k (exactly $22,035) Droid Productions
Valhalla: Lilith Rising $12.99 53 79% 1.6k $21k (exactly $20,654) Jubei Games
Primal Hearts 2 $24.99 23 95% 690 $17k (exactly $17,243) Marmalade
Demonslayer AKA Me $7.99 34 73% 1.0k $8.2k (exactly $8,150) 晶尘工作室
Boundless AI Fantasy $9.99 8 87% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) João Vitor Andrioli de Souza

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.