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Should I ship a Magic Choose Your Own Adventure game?
Choose Your Own Adventure + Magic
Of 132 developers who shipped a Magic Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 273 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.0k, ×11 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $620k, ×1321 the market median. Revenue is up 95% on the market; 273 games are announced against 79 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $836 (exactly $836) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.0k (exactly $5,034) |
| Top 25% | $28k (exactly $28,172) |
| Top 5% | $627k (exactly $627,443) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 132 |
| Released games | 445 |
| Announced | 273 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 95% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choose Your Own Adventure
- effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
- Magic
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Choose Your Own Adventure; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, Visual Novel
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 89% positive over 43,692 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $840. 8 in 10 of the 77 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 273 games are announced against 79 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choose Your Own Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RhythmStrong odds
- + FMVFair
- + FlightFair
- + SportsFair
- + Word GameFair
- + MilitaryFair
- + Score AttackFair
- + IdlerFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Local MultiplayerFair
- + 3D FighterLong shot
- + NavalPoor odds
Comparable games
The Elder Scrolls® Online 2017 · $81M 
Gothic 1 Remake 2026 · $39M 
Disney Dreamlight Valley 2023 · $26M 
WITCH ON THE HOLY NIGHT 2023 · $8.7M 
WitchSpring R 2023 · $7.2M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Elder Scrolls® Online | older | $19.99 | 134,421 82% | 4.0M | $81M (exactly $80,612,274) | ZeniMax Online Studios |
| | Gothic 1 Remake | $49.99 | 26,258 88% | 788k | $39M (exactly $39,379,123) | Alkimia Interactive | |
| | Disney Dreamlight Valley | older | $39.99 | 22,027 92% | 661k | $26M (exactly $26,425,792) | Gameloft |
| | WITCH ON THE HOLY NIGHT | older | $39.99 | 7,231 98% | 217k | $8.7M (exactly $8,675,031) | TYPE-MOON, Lasengle Inc., Hunex |
| | WitchSpring R | older | $34.99 | 6,858 95% | 206k | $7.2M (exactly $7,198,843) | KIWIWALKS |
 | Cultist Simulator | older | $19.99 | 10,496 82% | 315k | $6.3M (exactly $6,294,451) | Weather Factory |
 | Word Game | older | $34.99 | 5,930 93% | 178k | $6.2M (exactly $6,224,721) | Team9 |
 | Fate/stay night REMASTERED | older | $29.99 | 4,277 95% | 128k | $3.8M (exactly $3,848,017) | TYPE-MOON, fuzz Inc. |
 | Magical Princess | $14.99 | 7,636 96% | 229k | $3.4M (exactly $3,433,909) | Neotro Inc., MAGI Inc. | |
 | Guild Wars® Reforged | $19.99 | 3,265 87% | 98k | $2.0M (exactly $1,958,020) | ArenaNet® | |
 | Disney Epic Mickey: Rebrushed | $39.99 | 1,275 93% | 38k | $1.5M (exactly $1,529,618) | Purple Lamp | |
 | DevilConnection | $16.66 | 1,951 98% | 59k | $975k (exactly $975,110) | ChaoGames | |
 | Fate/hollow ataraxia REMASTERED | $29.99 | 949 96% | 28k | $854k (exactly $853,815) | TYPE-MOON, fuzz Inc. | |
 | Blades of Fire | $39.99 | 523 74% | 16k | $627k (exactly $627,443) | MercurySteam | |
 | Fallen Priestess: My Sister's Demonic Bloodline | $18.99 | 622 72% | 19k | $354k (exactly $354,353) | BBQ大好き | |
 | 緋月仙行錄 | $19.99 | 454 57% | 14k | $272k (exactly $272,264) | 月光草 | |
 | Sex & Blood: Vampires | $9.99 | 759 71% | 23k | $227k (exactly $227,472) | Taboo Tales 💘 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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