Do I ship it?

GamesChoose Your Own AdventureChoose Your Own Adventure + Logic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Logic game?

Choose Your Own Adventure + Logic

Of 79 developers who shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Logic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 129 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, ×4.0 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×2821 the market median. Revenue is up 90% on the market; 129 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 90% on the market, 129 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choose Your Own Adventure + Logic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 79
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $600 → $2.6k → $479 → $1.6k → $449 → $599 → $599 (still earning) → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choose Your Own Adventure + Logic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 79
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $478 (exactly $478)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,698)
Top 5% $336k (exactly $335,731)
Developers, 2 yr 79
Released games 224
Announced 129
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 90% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Choose Your Own Adventure, Logic; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Simulation, Visual Novel
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 38,769 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $480, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 52 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 129 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choose Your Own Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + FMVFair79 devs · median $54k · 74 announced
  3. + FlightFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  4. + SportsFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Word GameFair55 devs · median $1.4k · 65 announced
  6. + MilitaryFair23 devs · median $898 · 24 announced
  7. + Score AttackFair14 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  8. + IdlerFair41 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  9. + GamblingFair10 devs · median $494 · 14 announced
  10. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  11. + 3D FighterLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  12. + NavalPoor odds9 devs · median $14k · 16 announced

All 198 pairs on the Choose Your Own Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Magical Girl Witch Trials $29.99 29,869 96% 896k $27M (exactly $26,873,139) Acacia, Re,AER
Word Game older $34.99 5,930 93% 178k $6.2M (exactly $6,224,721) Team9
Staffer Retro : A Supernatural Mystery Quest $24.99 922 89% 28k $691k (exactly $691,223) Team Tetrapod
Game of Fate 2: A Century's Promise $15.99 1,054 78% 32k $506k (exactly $505,604) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Game Of Fate 3:Clash Of Crowns $16.79 734 85% 22k $370k (exactly $369,716) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Stellar Code $24.98 448 97% 13k $336k (exactly $335,731) Fragaria
Game of Fate: Chasing Through Time $10.99 986 88% 30k $325k (exactly $325,084) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Confidential Killings - A Detective Game $14.99 716 76% 21k $322k (exactly $321,985) BRANE, Lorenzo Boni
Paper Beast older $19.99 529 94% 16k $317k (exactly $317,241) Pixel Reef
The Cabin Factory $2.99 3,455 90% 104k $310k (exactly $309,914) International Cat Studios
Gloomy Eyes $24.99 155 94% 4.7k $116k (exactly $116,204) Atlas V, Be Revolution Gaming, 3Dar, Fi… (Atlas V, Be Revolution Gaming, 3Dar, Fishing Cactus, ARTE France)
The Simen Rumors $8.00 430 78% 13k $103k (exactly $103,200) 羊之口

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.