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Should I ship a Heist Choose Your Own Adventure game?
Choose Your Own Adventure + Heist
Only 8 developers shipped a Heist Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Thousand Hells: The Underworld Heists, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $12k, ×19 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $56k, ×91 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 15 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $449 (exactly $449) |
|---|---|
| Median | $12k (exactly $11,691) |
| Top 25% | $42k (exactly $41,658) |
| Top 5% | $57k (exactly $56,977) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 8 |
| Released games | 29 |
| Announced | 15 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 600% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choose Your Own Adventure
- effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
- Heist
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Choose Your Own Adventure
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 10,382 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 15 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choose Your Own Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RhythmStrong odds
- + FMVFair
- + FlightFair
- + SportsFair
- + Word GameFair
- + MilitaryFair
- + Score AttackFair
- + IdlerFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Local MultiplayerFair
- + 3D FighterLong shot
- + NavalPoor odds
Comparable games
To Be or Not to Be 2022 · $3.1M 
Twin Mirror 2021 · $897k 
Last Holiday 2023 · EA · $348k 
Ninki Seiyuu: How to Make a Pop Voice Actress 2021 · $253k 
Cybernetic Seduction - Season 1 2024 · $76k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | To Be or Not to Be | older | $12.99 | 8,035 89% | 241k | $3.1M (exactly $3,131,240) | Team K |
| | Twin Mirror | older | $29.99 | 997 76% | 30k | $897k (exactly $897,001) | DON'T NOD |
| | Last Holiday | · EA older | $29.99 | 387 40% | 12k | $348k (exactly $348,184) | Boomer Games s.r.o. |
| | Ninki Seiyuu: How to Make a Pop Voice Actress | older | $39.99 | 211 91% | 6.3k | $253k (exactly $253,137) | MintCUBE |
| | Cybernetic Seduction - Season 1 | older | $12.99 | 195 80% | 5.9k | $76k (exactly $75,992) | 1Thousand |
 | Thousand Hells: The Underworld Heists | $24.99 | 76 78% | 2.3k | $57k (exactly $56,977) | A Sharp | |
 | SEX Police 🔞🚨 | $9.99 | 139 76% | 4.2k | $42k (exactly $41,658) | Play and Cum 💦 | |
 | ROAD59 A Yakuza’s Last Stand | $29.99 | 27 37% | 810 | $24k (exactly $24,292) | 株式会社ロケットスタジオ | |
 | My Dictator Stalin Can't Be This Cute ?! | older | $1.49 | 285 92% | 8.6k | $13k (exactly $12,740) | uwucorp |
 | ACCIDENTALLY | $12.99 | 30 60% | 900 | $12k (exactly $11,691) | M&K WORKS | |
 | それいけ!!杉城園芸部 | $8.99 | 11 100% | 330 | $3.0k (exactly $2,967) | OJsoftware | |
 | Another Day Another Dollar | $4.99 | 3 66% | 90 | $449 (exactly $449) | 810 Game Studio | |
 | Cyber Citizen | $3.99 | 3 66% | 90 | $359 (exactly $359) | Rocket Powered Games | |
 | BoHeM | $4.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $150 (exactly $150) | Lani |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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